Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY
Veröffentlicht am: 25.08.2026 um 09:00 Uhr | dpa.de
Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
25.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 5
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Early CL exit weighs on FY25/26p; chg.
On Friday, BVB published preliminary FY25/26 figures, showing a declining
top line and profitability on the back of the early UCL exit. In detail:
FY25/26p sales declined 12.5% yoy to EUR 460m (eNuW: EUR 475m), almost entirely
explained by TV Marketing sales, which were down 25.9% to EUR 168m (eNuW: EUR
174m). Here, the UCL play-off round exit (vs quarter finals in FY24/25)
alone accounted for EUR 31m of the decline, while the FIFA Club World Cup,
which straddled the fiscal year end, contributed EUR 23m less. On top,
Bundesliga TV money declined EUR 5.5m, as the new four-year DFL contract
distributes revenues linearly, whereas the previous deal followed a step-up
model. Match Operations fell 8.9% to EUR 50.3m on two UCL home games less,
while Merchandising (EUR 38.7m) and Conference, Catering & Others (EUR 45.1m)
softened by 3.4% and 9.7% respectively. Importantly, Advertising grew a
further 2.8% yoy to EUR 158m (eNuW: EUR 161m) despite weaker on-pitch
performance and lower success bonuses, underlining the strength of the BVB
brand as a marketing platform.
Net transfer result was up 56.7% yoy to EUR 59.3m, as gross transfer proceeds
reached EUR 76.8m (vs EUR 63.6m prior year), mainly triggered by the sale of
Jamie Gittens to Chelsea. Including these, gross total operating proceeds
stood at EUR 537.2m.
EBITDA of EUR 92.2m (-20.4% yoy; eNuW: EUR104m) was cushioned by disciplined
cost management, visible in reduced personnel expenses, on the back of lower
performance-linked pay as well as lower travel expenses.
FY26/27 guidance implies operational step-up. Management guides for sales of
EUR 485-495m, EBITDA of EUR 118-128m and net income of EUR 0-10m, with FCF of EUR
-10 to -20m on infrastructure capex. Key assumptions are the direct UCL
qualification via Bundesliga finish and the round of 16 in both the DFB Cup
and the UCL. Notably, targeted EBITDA is broadly in line with FY24/25 (EUR
116m) despite EUR 40m lower sales and assumed gross transfer proceeds of only
EUR 45m. However, we view this as reasonable based on lower squad costs
following the departure of veteran players such as Süle or Brandt and
targeted cost-cutting. Moreover, the EUR 11m extra revenue for a potential UCL
round of 16 would come at a high incremental margin as it only incurs
performance bonuses.
To the on-pitch outlook. BVB kicked-off their season on Saturday but was
defeated by Bayern in the Supercup, which still generated EUR 2m in premium
payments. As aforementioned, the team got a fresh look over the summer,
adding promising talents like Karetsas, Gadou or Konstantelias as well as
the more experienced Veerman. While beating Bayern for the Bundesliga title
is in our view close to impossible, given the strength of the Bavarian
squad, BVB is set for another top-3 finish. For the UCL, the prediction is
harder as one bad game can end the campaign. Yet, with BVB being top-10 in
the UEFA club coefficient, the round of 16 should clearly be in the cards.
Mind you, should BVB advance beyond that stage, additional high-margin
premium payments would follow, i.e. an extra EUR 12.5m for the quarterfinals.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 5.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=cd4044f72d6225ba91d423f1f526e2c4
For additional information visit our website:
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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