Original-Research: 2G Energy AG (von Parmantier & Cie. GmbH): Sell

GmbH



15.10.2026 / 14:30 CET/CEST
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Classification of Parmantier & Cie. GmbH to 2G Energy AG



     Company Name:                2G Energy AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A0HL8N9



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Sell
     from:                        15.10.2026
     Target price:                EUR 39.00
     Target price on sight of:    3-6 months
     Last rating change:          n/a
     Analyst:                     René Parmantier



2G Energy AG: 2026 Guidance Now Hinges Almost Entirely on the Second Half.
PARMANTIER & CIE. Research Reiterates Sell



Half-year report shows a 0.6% EBIT margin, operating cash flow financed by
customer advances, and an order backlog of over EUR 600 million with no
delivery-year breakdown. SEC filings confirm Energy Vault paid a USD 17.0
million reservation fee, not a purchase-price deposit. Price target
unchanged at EUR 39.00.



Frankfurt am Main, October 15, 2026. 2G Energy AG (ISIN DE000A0HL8N9) today
published its 2026 half-year report. PARMANTIER & CIE. Research has reviewed
the report together with the filings Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. submitted
to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and in its research
update dated October 15, 2026 reiterates its Sell recommendation. The EUR
39.00 price target is the valuation conclusion of our research model; it
stands roughly 29% below the Xetra closing price of October 14, 2026 of EUR
54.85.



Key takeaways



  * First-half revenue of EUR 136.0 million (prior year: EUR 169.9 million),
    EBIT of EUR 0.8 million (prior year: EUR 5.7 million), EBIT margin of
    0.6%.



  * To meet the confirmed guidance (revenue of EUR 440-490 million, EBIT
    margin of 9.5-10.5%), we calculate that the second half must deliver EUR
    304-354 million of revenue and roughly 98% of full-year EBIT.



  * The EUR 39.5 million operating cash flow rests on a EUR 123.2 million
    increase in received customer advances - customer pre-financing, not
    freely available liquidity.



  * The order backlog of more than EUR 600 million is neither broken down by
    delivery year nor reconciled.



  * For Energy Vault, SEC filings document a USD 17.0 million reservation
    fee. The mid-double-digit-million advance payment reported by 2G is not
    independently documented there.



1. First half: revenue down about 20%, EBIT near zero



Group revenue fell roughly 20% to EUR 136.0 million, and new-plant revenue
fell 36.4% to EUR 52.6 million. EBIT dropped to EUR 0.8 million. Management
cites one-off IT-project costs, higher depreciation and an early build-up of
headcount among the reasons. The report was published later than usual
because of the transition to a new ERP system.



2. Guidance requires an unprecedented second half



In the foreword, management states it expects a strong second half, "so that
we should reach the revenue and earnings guidance." By our calculation, the
guidance requires EUR 304-354 million of second-half revenue - 2.2 to 2.6
times first-half revenue. The implied second-half EBIT margin would be
12.9-14.9%, up from 0.6% in H1 and 6.6% for full-year 2025. 2G recognizes
revenue from its first data-center order only as individual plants arrive in
the U.S.; deliveries begin in Q4. Any delay in production, shipping or
acceptance pushes that revenue directly into 2027.



3. Advances finance the ramp-up; they are not revenue



The EUR 123.2 million is the change in received advances during the first
half, not the balance and not recognizable revenue. At June 30, 2026 the
balance sheet shows EUR 162.8 million of received advances on the liability
side; a further EUR 41.4 million is netted against inventories. Gross, that
is roughly EUR 204 million (our calculation), including advances under
full-maintenance contracts. The cash flowed into higher raw materials and
supplies (plus EUR 36.5 million) and work in progress (plus EUR 48.2
million); advances paid to suppliers rose EUR 28.4 million. The EUR 29.3
million cash position equals roughly 18% of the advances recorded as
liabilities. Management describes a "strong balance sheet"; the equity ratio
fell from 51.0% to 38.3%.



4. An order backlog above EUR 600 million: size without maturity



2G reports an order backlog of roughly EUR 200 million at the start of the
year and over EUR 600 million at June 30, 2026. A simple roll-forward using
EUR 479.4 million of new orders and EUR 136.0 million of revenue yields
about EUR 543 million (our calculation). The gap may have definitional
reasons; the report does not explain it. What matters is which part of the
backlog is delivered and recognized as revenue and earnings in 2026, 2027 or
2028. That figure is not disclosed.



5. Energy Vault: reservation documented, advance payment reported



According to Energy Vault's quarterly report (Form 10-Q), the company
entered into a production-slot reservation agreement with 2G Energy Inc. in
May 2026 and had paid a total of USD 17.0 million in reservation fees by
July. The agreement did not obligate either side to sign a purchase
contract; the fee is credited only if the contract is executed by the
applicable deadline. On September 23, 2026, 2G announced a 275 MW order and,
on September 29, stated the customer had made a mid-double-digit-million
advance payment to replace the reservation. On August 14, 2026, an Energy
Vault subsidiary entered into a secured credit facility of approximately USD
137.5 million to finance power-generation equipment. The supplier is
redacted in the filed agreement; a draw of up to USD 38.4 million is
scheduled for August 2026, with maturity on January 2, 2028. Whether this
facility finances the 2G order is not confirmed. If it did, the advance
payment would in our view be largely debt-financed. We have corrected our
earlier characterization of a parallel order placed with Rolls-Royce MTU:
Energy Vault's September 10, 2026 announcement of 275 MW on Rolls-Royce MTU
technology may refer to the same capacity.



Investment view



Demand for decentralized power generation is real. As long as the second
half must carry almost the entire annual result and the maturity of the
order backlog is not disclosed, we view the risk/reward as negative. We
reiterate our Sell recommendation with a EUR 39.00 price target, the
valuation conclusion of our model.



What investors should now demand



First, a maturity analysis of the order backlog by delivery year (2026,
2027, 2028) reconciled to the opening balance. Second, a delivery schedule
for the data-center orders with expected acceptance and recognition dates.
Third, a reconciliation of received advances by new-plant versus maintenance
contracts, by major order, and by cash versus bank guarantee. Fourth,
transparent confirmation of the major customer contracts: counterparty,
payment milestones, cancellation terms, and any guarantees or
advance-payment bonds issued by 2G after June 30, 2026.



Important notice: This publication summarizes the independent research
update by Parmantier & Cie. GmbH dated October 15, 2026 on 2G Energy AG and
constitutes an investment recommendation within the meaning of Regulation
(EU) No 596/2014 (Market Abuse Regulation). It is not investment advice and
not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The study was
prepared independently and is neither commissioned nor compensated by the
issuer. The recommendation and price target are based on Parmantier & Cie.
Research's valuation model and assumptions and may change. Rating system:
Buy above +15%, Hold -15% to +15%, Sell below -15% expected share-price
performance over a twelve-month horizon. Disclosures on conflicts of
interest, positions, recommendation history and methodology are included in
the full study.





You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=1220f7a36e0d7b74809473eda199a5c1



Contact for questions:
Parmantier & Cie. GmbH
René Parmantier, Analyst
Hungener Strasse 6, 60389 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
[e-mail]



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2416646 15.10.2026 CET/CEST