Oral GLP-1 Battle Heats Up: Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Pill Leads on Scripts but Amazon and Generics Reshape the Playing Field

Novo Nordisk stock recovers 12% in month but down 13.7% YTD. Oral Wegovy leads with 1M patients, Amazon partnership expands distribution, while generic threats and pricing pressures loom.

Novo Nordisk’s stock has clawed back nearly 12% over the past month, yet it still sits 13.7% lower since January. The seesaw reflects a company firing on multiple operational cylinders while confronting an unusually dense thicket of headwinds. At 38.56 euros, the shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 14 — well below its five-year historical average — as investors weigh strong product uptake against looming generic threats and intensifying price pressure.

The Danish drugmaker is drawing most of its near-term momentum from the oral version of Wegovy, which has racked up more than one million patients since its U.S. launch in early January. In the 15th week on the market, weekly prescriptions hit roughly 207,000, according to the company. That marks a clear early lead over Eli Lilly’s competing pill, Foundayo, which generated just over 10,200 prescriptions in the first week of May after an April launch. The battle is now tilting on small but meaningful differences: Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 causes fewer gastrointestinal side effects, while Eli Lilly’s product can be taken without regard to meals, a convenience advantage the Danish firm is working to offset with cheaper monthly pricing and a growing distribution network.

That network just got a major digital boost. Amazon Pharmacy has begun offering Ozempic tablets for type-2 diabetes patients, with same-day delivery available in nearly 3,000 U.S. cities. The e-commerce giant plans to expand coverage to around 4,500 cities by the end of 2026. Oral GLP-1 medications do not require refrigeration, making them particularly suited to mail-order logistics. Self-pay patients will be able to buy a one-month supply for roughly $149, while insured customers may pay as little as $25 per month depending on their plan. The partnership provides Novo Nordisk with a powerful retail channel but also weakens its direct link to patients and adds to a growing chorus of pricing pressure that already contributed to an 11% currency-adjusted revenue decline in the U.S. during the first quarter.

Overseas, the company is fighting a different kind of war. Generic copies of semaglutide have already entered the Indian market, where competitors such as Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Cipla and Zydus Lifesciences are targeting both diabetes and obesity indications. Novo Nordisk responded with aggressive price cuts, and the strategy has partially paid off: its own diabetes and weight-loss drug volumes in India jumped 40% recently, while its market share held steady at 25% compared to Eli Lilly’s slide from 61% to 56%. Still, patent expirations in Canada, Brazil and China loom as broader threats to international revenue. The U.S. market remains the crown jewel, protected from generics until 2032, but the company’s 2026 guidance already forecasts a 4% to 12% decline in both revenue and profit — an outlook the management revised upward slightly from an earlier, more pessimistic projection.

Pipeline news offers some counterweight. Positive phase 3 data for Denecimig, a hemophilia A treatment, could open flexible dosing options if the FDA approves it. The regulator recently greenlit an oral version of Ozempic for type 2 diabetes. Later this year, a pivotal FDA decision is expected on a 25-milligram high-dose tablet of Ozempic, with a verdict due by the end of 2026. The same timeline applies to CagriSema, a combination therapy targeting obesity. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk is exploring new indications with the AMAZE 6 trial, which tests a candidate for weight loss and knee pain simultaneously, aiming at the intersection of obesity and osteoarthritis — a potentially high-value niche.

Analysts remain split. Citigroup has lifted its price target on the Copenhagen-listed shares to 290 Danish kroner while maintaining a “Neutral” stance. Bernstein, by contrast, continues to recommend selling the stock. The coming months will test whether the Amazon distribution boost and pipeline milestones can meaningfully offset the margin squeeze from generics and pricing pressure. Novo Nordisk is scheduled to report half-year results on August 5, and investors will be watching closely for signs that its GLP-1 offensive can outrun the headwinds gathering around it.