Oneok Shares Face Critical Technical Juncture

Oneok US6826801036

The stock of pipeline operator Oneok finds itself at a significant technical crossroads. Following a brief period of consolidation, market participants are closely watching to see if the equity can reclaim a more stable footing. This comes against a backdrop of steady operational progress, with expansion projects and pipeline ramp-ups proceeding on schedule. The immediate question for traders is whether the share price can decisively recover its 100-day moving average.

While the share price experienced a technical test of its 100-day moving average in early January—briefly dipping below it—this movement was not unique to Oneok. Several other midstream energy equities also saw modest profit-taking as broader market sentiment turned slightly cautious.

Concurrently, the company has confirmed the successful ramp-up of its West Texas NGL pipeline. The completion of looping activities and additional pump stations has boosted the line's capacity to 740,000 barrels per day. This enhanced throughput is crucial for handling high volumes of natural gas liquids from the Permian Basin. Furthermore, progress continues on the jointly-owned LPG export terminal in Texas City, a venture with MPLX designed for a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day. Oneok maintains an 80% stake in the MBTC pipeline, which will link the Mont Belvieu hub to the new terminal. Commercial operations for this project are slated to begin in early 2028.

On the strategic front, management's focus remains on integration and efficiency. The acquisitions of EnLink and Magellan are expected to generate synergies of approximately $250 million in the coming months, contributing to an anticipated earnings per share (EPS) growth exceeding 15% for fiscal 2026. The company is simultaneously targeting a leverage ratio around 3.6x. Stable cash flows, underpinned by long-term, fixed-fee contracts, continue to support the current quarterly dividend payout of $1.03 per share.

Key Operational Highlights:
* West Texas NGL Pipeline Capacity: 740,000 barrels per day
* LPG Export Terminal Capacity: 400,000 barrels per day (Commercial start: early 2028)
* Projected M&A Synergies: ~$250 million
* Current Quarterly Dividend: $1.03 (implying an annualized yield near 5.6%)

The Path to the Next Catalyst

With shares currently trading at $70.87—approximately 33% below their 52-week high—the next clear market catalyst is the scheduled release of Q4 and full-year 2026 results on March 2. The consensus estimate for quarterly EPS stands at $1.52.

From a chart perspective, a sustained stabilization above the 100-day moving average would signal a return of investor confidence. Should the recovery attempt fail, the stock may consolidate further toward its 200-day moving average (currently at $68.77) ahead of the March report. The fundamental data provided then is expected to offer fresh directional impetus.

In essence, the financial figures due on March 2 will serve as the critical test. They will demonstrate whether the positive operational developments—including pipeline expansions, the terminal project, and merger synergies—are already translating into tangible financial performance, or if investors will require clearer evidence before rebuilding conviction.