Ondas Holdings Lifts Revenue Guidance by a Third, Yet Short Interest Tops 35%

Despite a guidance hike to $525M and a transformative acquisition, Ondas shares have fallen 25% as 35.7% of float is shorted, signaling market skepticism.

The gap between Ondas Holdings’ improving fundamentals and its stock market performance has rarely been wider. Management this week jacked its full-year revenue forecast to at least $525 million, up sharply from a prior target below $400 million. Yet shares have shed roughly a quarter of their value over the past month, and an eye-watering 35.71% of the float is sold short — a bet from a large chunk of the market that the rally that sent the stock up nearly 348% over the past twelve months has run its course.

The catalyst for the guidance revision is the closure of the $875.8 million acquisition of drone specialist DZYNE Technologies in July. The deal, financed with $200 million in cash and around 85 million new Ondas shares, has been absorbed into a newly created division called Ondas Sentinel. The unit consolidates the company’s U.S. defense technology, including existing World-View activities, and is positioned as a platform for autonomous surveillance, air security, and counter-drone systems. DZYNE’s SkyWeaver artificial-intelligence platform — developed in partnership with Palantir — along with the ULTRA ISR system and the IonStrike anti-drone technology all fall under Sentinel’s umbrella.

DZYNE alone is expected to contribute $191 million to 2026 revenue, with that figure projected to surpass $300 million in 2027. The acquisition is already profitable on an EBITDA basis, and management sees EBITDA margins reaching the mid-teens next year, climbing to the mid-20s by 2028. To prevent a flood of new stock hitting the market, more than half of the new shares — roughly 45 million — are locked up for six months, a restriction set to expire in January 2027.

Beyond the DZYNE integration, Ondas continues to build out its software capability. The Palantir collaboration is producing a centralized AI-driven command system that will link every sensor and drone the company operates, with the ambition of creating a fully automated defense network. That strategy is already generating tangible wins: in the second quarter, the company booked over $150 million in new orders for ground-based defense systems and other products, lifting its total order backlog to $457 million. The broader sales pipeline stands at $1.5 billion.

Ondas enters the second half of 2026 with a hefty cash pile of roughly $1.5 billion, providing ample room for additional M&A. The next piece of the puzzle is the $125 million acquisition of Cyberhawk, expected to close in the third quarter. That deal’s revenue contribution is not yet reflected in the raised guidance, leaving the door open for another upward revision.

The disconnect between corporate momentum and equity performance is striking. The stock recently changed hands at around €6.80, a far cry from its 52-week high of €13.02 reached in January and roughly 19% below its 50-day moving average of €8.32. The relative strength index sits at 37.6, suggesting the shares are weak but not yet oversold. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is down 28.54%, even as the longer-term picture shows a triple-digit gain.

High short interest of nearly 36% means a significant portion of the market is positioning for further declines — or, alternatively, betting on a short squeeze if good news keeps rolling in. Trading volume spiked ahead of the DZYNE close, with more than 312 million shares changing hands in a single session. The six-month lock-up expiration in January is viewed by some as a looming overhang, but for now, the immediate focus is on the third-quarter close of the Cyberhawk acquisition and whether Ondas can convert its upgraded revenue target into sustainable earnings growth.