OMV’s €4.40 Dividend Glosses Over a Coming Squeeze as Borouge Delay Hits 2026 Payout

OMV proposes €4.40 per share for 2025, but delayed Borouge IPO cuts 2026 dividend outlook by €0.60-€0.70. Stock near peak, earnings miss consensus.

OMV shareholders are in for a generous payout at the May 27 annual general meeting in Vienna, but the celebration may be short-lived. The board is proposing a total distribution of €4.40 per share for the 2025 financial year – a combination of €3.15 in regular dividends and a €1.25 special dividend triggered by the company’s leverage ratio dropping below 30%. If approved, the ex-date falls on June 8, with cash arriving in accounts on June 11.

The stock is already trading near its 52-week peak, reflecting the bullish sentiment. It closed Friday at €62.55, just 2.04% below the high of €63.85 set on May 19. Over the past 12 months, shares have climbed 33.54%, and the year-to-date gain stands at 29.29%. Technical indicators remain constructive – the price sits 3.99% above its 50-day moving average and 21.38% above its 200-day line, while the RSI at 56.9 suggests no overheating.

Yet beneath that surface lies a stark warning for next year. The delayed initial public offering of the Borouge Group International (BGI) joint venture, now pushed into 2027, will bite deeply into 2026 distributions. OMV previously expected $500 million in dividends from BGI but will now receive only $250 million. Management itself quantifies the hit at €0.60 to €0.70 per share, lowering the outlook for next year’s payout to an expected yield of roughly 7.14% – still the highest in the ATX, but a clear step down from the current year.

The company is adjusting its dividend policy accordingly. Starting with the 2026 financial year, OMV will pass through 50% of dividends from BGI and supplement that with 20% to 30% of operating cash flow generated outside the joint venture. The full deconsolidation of Borealis takes effect in the second quarter of 2026, with Borouge International to be accounted for using the equity method. That means only OMV’s share of net income will appear in the group’s operating profit.

First-quarter results already signaled headwinds. Adjusted operating profit fell 12% to €1.03 billion, while adjusted net income dropped 22% to €323 million – 19% below the analyst consensus. Higher financing costs and minority interests weighed on the bottom line. The balance sheet remains solid, however: OMV holds €3.5 billion in cash plus €3.1 billion in undrawn credit lines, and the leverage ratio stands at a comfortable 17%, well inside the 30% ceiling.

To maintain financial flexibility, the board is preparing to call the €750 million hybrid bond issued in 2020 (the NC6 tranche) and replace it with a new hybrid of up to €750 million. The issuance could come as early as June 2026, within the next 18 months, pending supervisory board approval. The proceeds will help cover upcoming refinancing needs and preserve liquidity.

One persistent overhang remains the Russian legal tangle. A St. Petersburg appeals court has upheld an injunction barring OMV Gas Marketing & Trading GmbH from pursuing arbitration against Gazprom Export in Stockholm. Any violation carries a penalty equal to the dispute value of roughly €32 million.

For now, the capital-markets narrative dominates. The uptrend is intact, and the AGM, ex-date, and payout are the immediate milestones. But investors will be watching closely what happens once the 2026 numbers begin to roll in – the Borouge delay has already taken a visible slice out of the dividend promise.