OMV Ex-Dividend Markdown Fails to Cap Rally as Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Oil Forecasts

OMV shares slip on ex-dividend date but remain near 52-week high as Strait of Hormuz blockade and new dividend formula drive investor sentiment.

OMV shares pulled back Monday as the stock traded without the rights to its €4.40 per share payout, but the technical dip does little to dent a rally that has lifted the Austrian energy group within a whisker of its 52-week high. Behind the dividend event, a far more powerful force is driving the narrative: the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The company's annual general meeting approved a total distribution of €4.40 per share for the 2025 financial year—a regular dividend of €3.15 topped up with a special payment of €1.25. Shareholders who bought before the ex-date will receive the cash on June 11, while new buyers miss out. The closing price on Friday stood at €64.25, just 0.23% below the 52-week high of €64.40, underscoring how close the stock is to breaching resistance.

This payout is the final one under the old system. Starting with the 2026 business year, OMV will link distributions to a new formula: 50% of the attributable dividends from its Borouge Group International joint venture, plus 20% to 30% of operating cash flow excluding those Borouge payments. The shift is designed to decouple shareholder returns from the volatile oil price—and the timing could not be more apt.

Tensions in the Persian Gulf are rewriting OMV's planning assumptions. Since late February, Iran has largely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting supply chains and whipsawing global energy prices. The Q1 results already bear the scars: clean CCS operating profit fell 12% year-on-year to €1.025 billion, while earnings per share sank to €1.00. Operating cash flow from continuing activities reached €776 million on revenues of €5.855 billion, and the leverage ratio held at a comfortable 17%, well below the 30% threshold that triggers the variable dividend component.

The crisis has forced management to revise its Brent crude oil price assumption upward to a range of $85–$95 per barrel, a sharp jump from the previous forecast of around $65. The gas price projection has also been lifted to €45 per megawatt-hour. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced a production target increase of 188,000 barrels per day starting in July, but Rystad analyst Jorge Leon noted the impact will remain muted as long as the Hormuz waterway stays closed. A reopening could rapidly flip the market from scarcity anxiety into oversupply fears.

In contrast, secure European supply routes are gaining value. In May, work began on the Neptun Deep pipeline project in the Black Sea. The multibillion-euro venture is expected to pump around eight billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to Tuzla from 2027, potentially making Romania the EU's largest gas producer. OMV's involvement in the project provides a tangible hedge against geopolitical disruption.

For the stock itself, the long-term performance remains stellar. The shares have advanced 32.80% year-to-date and 48.11% over twelve months. They trade 5.47% above their 50-day moving average of €60.92 and 22.81% above the 200-day average of €52.32. The relative strength index sits at 63.2, suggesting no overheating despite the recent run. Short-term momentum is intact, with gains of 1.82% over seven days and 6.99% over 30 days.

The dividend ex-date is a temporary mechanical adjustment. What matters for the future trajectory is whether institutional and retail buyers step in after the payday. The new dividend formula from 2026 ties payouts more closely to operational cash flow and Borouge performance, reducing dependence on crude price swings. With the Hormuz blockade injecting fresh uncertainty into oil markets, that structural change could become a key attraction for income-focused investors who prefer substance and cash-flow visibility over headline oil volatility.