OMV Braces for Q1 Reckoning: Hedging Losses of €100 Million Cloud a Projected Earnings Surge

OMV faces €100M hedging losses from Hormuz disruptions, taps strategic oil reserves, and unveils a new dividend model amid chemicals downturn and delayed Borouge IPO.

The Straits of Hormuz blockade is reshaping OMV’s near-term outlook in ways that go far beyond logistics. The Austrian energy and chemicals group has been forced to tap Austria’s strategic petroleum reserve, drawing 56,000 tonnes of crude oil to keep its Schwechat refinery running. The move, part of a coordinated International Energy Agency effort to calm markets, underscores the severity of supply chain disruptions now hitting the company’s bottom line.

Those geopolitical headwinds will be laid bare on Thursday when OMV publishes its first-quarter results at 7:00 am CET, followed by a management presentation at 11:30 am. The numbers tell a tale of two forces pulling in opposite directions.

A €100 Million Hedge Hit and Margin Squeeze

Disruptions to supply routes through the vital Middle Eastern waterway have triggered one-off hedging losses of roughly €100 million in the opening quarter. That pain was compounded by a sharp deterioration in refining margins, while the fuels segment absorbed an additional €150 million charge.

Yet analysts are pencilling in a dramatic earnings rebound. The consensus forecast points to a profit of €1.32 per share — triple the level seen a year earlier. Revenue is expected to climb to nearly €8 billion. The market will be watching closely to see whether the operational headwinds have been fully contained or whether deeper structural issues are at play.

Chemicals Joint Venture Under the Microscope

Attention is also trained on OMV’s newly formed chemicals mega-alliance, which combines Borouge, Borealis, and NOVA Chemicals into a global powerhouse. Management expects the venture to deliver a stable quarterly contribution of around €140 million from the second quarter onward.

Not everyone is convinced. RBC Capital Markets has downgraded OMV to “underperform” with a price target of €46, pointing to the prolonged downturn in the chemicals sector. The bank argues that OMV carries heavier exposure to this cyclical slump than most of its peers.

Borouge IPO Delayed, Dividend Model Overhauled

The planned initial public offering of Borouge Group International in Abu Dhabi has been pushed back to 2027. OMV and its partner ADNOC blame elevated market volatility and want to build a more robust financial foundation before taking the company public.

Shareholders are being offered a revamped dividend framework in the meantime. Starting with the current financial year, the payout will be structurally decoupled from oil prices. Investors will receive half of BGI’s dividends plus a portion of operating cash flow from the rest of the business. The first distribution under this new model is due next year.

For the 2025 financial year, OMV has already flagged a total dividend of €4.40 per share — comprising €3.15 regular and €1.25 special — implying a yield of roughly 7.5 to 8.1 percent at the current share price. The final decision rests with the annual general meeting on May 27, 2026, with the ex-dividend date set for June 8 and payment on June 11.

Technical Picture Hinges on Earnings

OMV’s stock has been one of the stronger performers in the European energy sector this year, gaining about 20 percent since January. On Friday, the shares closed at €58.10, sitting precisely on their 50-day moving average of €58.03.

The stock hit a 52-week high of €63.20 in early April before correcting roughly eight percent. The 200-day average at €50.13 remains well below current levels, keeping the long-term uptrend intact. If Thursday’s results can push the price above the 20-day line near €60.50, technicians see scope for a renewed advance toward the €60 mark.

A disappointing set of numbers, however, could test support at the 50-day average and bring the year’s low back into play. For now, the market is betting that the projected earnings surge will overshadow the €100 million hedging loss — but the margin for error is razor-thin.