OHB Stock Hit by KKR's Billion-Euro Exit and Shareholder Dilution Fears Despite Record Backlog

OHB shares plummet 47% from May peak as KKR's looming €1B+ block sale and a newly approved €1.2B convertible mandate fuel dilution fears, despite record orders and strong Q1 results.

The space group's shares have more than halved from May's all-time high of €688, sliding to €365.50 in recent trading after a brief bounce to €381 earlier in the week. The sell-off stems from two conflicting forces: a looming block sale by private equity heavyweight KKR and a freshly approved capital mandate that could see the company issue up to €1.2 billion in convertible instruments by 2031.

KKR, which holds roughly 29% of OHB, is expected to place around 20% of the company's shares on the market before the end of June. With a current free float of just 5.7%, the sheer size of the block — estimated at over €1 billion — has triggered acute selling pressure. The stock's annualised volatility of approximately 146% underscores the fragility of a market that will only see its float rise to about 26% after the transaction. While analysts welcome the long-term liquidity improvement, the immediate overhang has overwhelmed the stock.

The Gründer family Fuchs retains a commanding 65% of voting rights, insulating control from the capital market turbulence. But the near-term pain is real: Wednesday's price of €381 was already 44% below the May peak, and the subsequent drop to €365.50 puts the stock barely above its 50-day moving average of €362. The relative strength index stands at 46.3, indicating no oversold conditions yet.

Complicating the sentiment picture, OHB's virtual annual general meeting on 8 June authorised management to issue convertible bonds, subscription rights and participating certificates worth up to €1.2 billion through 2031. Shareholders also approved a new conditional capital increase of roughly 20% of the current share base. Critics point to a significant dilution risk if the full framework is tapped, even as the company points to a record order book of €3.35 billion — up 45% year-on-year — that requires heavy upfront investment.

Operationally, the Bremen-based group is firing on all cylinders. First-quarter total output climbed 15% to €279.3 million, adjusted EBITDA surged 37% to €27.3 million, and net profit nearly tripled to just under €10 million. For the full year 2026, OHB targets €1.4 billion in total revenue and aims to cross the €2 billion mark by 2028 with an EBITDA margin of 11%. The Space Systems segment alone contributed €2.68 billion to the order backlog as of 31 March.

A major organisational shake-up is also underway. On 1 July, Dr Luis Alejandro Orellano — former COO of ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and a veteran of Rohde & Schwarz, DaimlerChrysler and Bombardier — will become the company's first chief operating officer. His mandate: transform OHB from a craft-based manufacturer into an industrial-scale serial producer. That same day, the inaugural flight of the RFA ONE rocket, built by OHB subsidiary Rocket Factory Augsburg, is scheduled from the SaxaVord spaceport in Scotland. The launch vehicle is set to carry seven satellites, though management is characteristically cautious: historically, fewer than 30% of maiden flights for new launch systems succeed.

Alongside the operational ramp-up, OHB is expanding physical capacity. The former TechniSat plant in Schöneck has been acquired to assemble satellite constellations such as "Saxon-1". At the ILA Berlin air show, which opened this week, the company also unveiled "KIRK", a joint venture with AI specialist Helsing focused on tactical reconnaissance.

The dual overhang of KKR's exit and the dilution threat from the capital mandate has obscured these fundamental advances. Once the block placement is completed, the immediate selling pressure should dissipate, and the market's attention may finally turn to the company's record backlog and industrial transformation. Until then, OHB remains caught between a space boom and a capital market squeeze.