OHB's Wild Ride: How a €3.35 Billion Backlog Meets a Razor-Thin Free Float

OHB's 5.7% free float causes extreme stock swings despite record €3.35B order book and rising earnings. A €1B+ share placement aims to fix liquidity.

The German space and defence group OHB SE has become a study in contradictions. On one hand, its order book stands at a record €3.35 billion and first-quarter earnings surged. On the other, its stock has been swinging violently — down nearly 25% in three days, then up 12% the next — all in the absence of any fresh corporate news. The culprit is not a change in fundamentals but a structural quirk: an extraordinarily tiny free float.

Of OHB's 19.2 million total shares, only 1.09 million are in public hands, with a further 62,000 held in treasury. That equates to a free-float ratio of roughly 5.7%, a concentration that turns even modest buy or sell orders into powerful price movers. The recent turbulence, which saw the stock dip to €457 intraday before recovering to €474, underscores how liquidity — or the lack of it — can override earnings momentum for weeks on end.

Management is acutely aware of the problem. OHB plans to dilute the free float to around 20% via a placement of shares worth well over €1 billion. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are coordinating the consortium, with Berenberg and Commerzbank providing additional support. The sheer scale of the offering — relative to the current thin float — means that even moderate demand could drive the stock sharply higher, but the deal also introduces its own uncertainty until execution.

The operational narrative, meanwhile, remains robust. In the first quarter, OHB posted total output of €279.3 million, up 15% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 37% to €27 million, while adjusted EBIT jumped 63%. The order backlog swelled from €2.31 billion a year earlier to €3.35 billion, providing multi-year revenue visibility. At a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 250, however, the valuation leaves virtually no room for disappointment — a reality that amplifies any bearish whisper.

A fresh contract win underscores the pipeline's strength. OHB Italia and Munich-based HPS GmbH signed a deal on the sidelines of the SmallSat Europe 2026 conference in Amsterdam to supply the communication antenna for ESA's Ramses mission. The probe will rendezvous with the near-Earth asteroid Apophis, which is set to pass within 32,000 kilometres of Earth in April 2029. The overall mission contract, worth €81.2 million, was awarded to OHB Italia in February; the latest order confirms the project remains on schedule.

Catalysts are piling up on the calendar. OHB's virtual annual general meeting is scheduled for 8 June, where shareholders will vote on a dividend of €0.60 per share. The maiden flight of Rocket Factory Augsburg's rocket, dubbed RFA ONE, has a launch window starting 1 July. Second-quarter results are due on 6 August. Separately, OHB is in talks with Rheinmetall about tactical reconnaissance from space — a partnership that could open a new revenue stream in defence.

For now, the stock remains a hostage to its own structure. Until the placement lands and the float thickens, the price action will likely continue to look more like a test of market mechanics than a reflection of the company's underlying health. The upcoming events will provide the next catalysts — but the tightest leash remains the one imposed by the share register itself.