OHB’s Record Backlog and Rocket Ambitions Face Off Against a Brutal Valuation Reset

OHB SE's record €3.35B order book contrasts with a 30% stock decline. Upcoming rocket launch and Q2 earnings could shift market sentiment as valuation remains stretched.

OHB SE finds itself in an unusual tug-of-war. On one side sits a €3.35 billion order book — the fattest in company history — and a planned inaugural rocket launch that could reshape its growth narrative. On the other, a stock that has shed over 30% from its May peak, a valuation multiple that still stretches investor patience, and a shareholder base so thin that a sell-off of eight hundred shares moves the price.

The tension between operational strength and market sentiment will come to a head over the next eight weeks, with three events — a virtual annual meeting, a rocket launch window, and second-quarter earnings — capable of tilting the balance either way.

A Correction That Erased Months of Gains

The rally that took OHB to €629 on 21 May — with an intraday spike as high as €662 — has largely evaporated. By 29 May the stock had closed at €443.50, and on the Monday that followed it opened at €464 only to touch a low of €431.50 before steadying. At roughly €442, the consensus price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 stood at about 120. At the May peak that multiple had touched nearly 190 — a level that demands constant outperformance and leaves no room for error.

That explosive run was fuelled by two back-to-back announcements in mid-May. On 19 May, OHB and artificial intelligence specialist Helsing formed a joint venture called KIRK, aimed at building a space-based system for tactical surveillance, reconnaissance and target acquisition with near-real-time AI support. The venture brought in Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace and HENSOLDT as consortium partners. Two days later, the European Space Agency selected OHB Czechspace’s SOVA-S mission — designed to measure atmospheric gravity waves in the upper mesosphere — for the next development phase, with OHB’s subsidiary acting as prime contractor. Defence space, satellite intelligence and an ESA nod: a potent mix that the market priced in aggressively.

The Rocket That Could Change the Conversation

While those headlines drove the narrative, the underlying business has been quietly building momentum. Rocket Factory Augsburg, OHB’s rocket subsidiary, has applied for a launch window starting 1 July for the first test flight of the RFA ONE vehicle. The rocket will carry seven satellites from various organisations, coordinated by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). Engine tests of the Helix motors are already under way in Kiruna, and a vehicle sits in the integration hall at SaxaVord.

OHB itself is tempering expectations: historically, fewer than 30% of first flights of new launch systems succeed. And in the near term, RFA’s impact on the group’s financials is limited because it is consolidated at equity, meaning it does not appear directly in the mid-term guidance. But the longer-term potential is substantial. Series production is planned to begin in 2028, with up to 25 launches a year targeted.

A successful test in July could accelerate the resolution of a structural problem that has been distorting every price move: OHB’s dangerously thin free float.

The Liquidity Puzzle and KKR’s Exit Roadmap

Only 5.68% of OHB’s 19.15 million shares trade freely. That extreme concentration means that even a modest sell order of 800 shares can cause visible price swings. The recent slide was triggered largely by the postponement of a large block placement by private-equity firm KKR, which holds 29% of the stock and wants to place around 20 percentage points onto the market. The founding Fuchs family, which controls 65% of voting rights, would retain its majority. If the transaction goes through by the end of June, free float would jump from roughly 6% to 26%, dramatically reducing volatility.

The interplay between the rocket launch and the placement is not lost on the market. A successful RFA ONE flight would provide a fresh narrative tailwind that could make the placement easier to execute — and in doing so, solve the liquidity bottleneck that has prevented the stock from holding onto its gains.

Operational Strength Under the Hood

While the share price has wavered, the underlying numbers tell a different story. In the first quarter of 2026, total output rose 15% year on year to €279.3 million, adjusted EBITDA climbed 37% to €27.3 million, and earnings per share surged 165% to €0.52. The order backlog hit an all-time high of €3.35 billion at 31 March, 45% above the level a year earlier. Space Systems accounts for the lion’s share — €2.68 billion, or 76% of segment output — powered by ESA programmes and rising defence budgets.

Management has set clear mid-term targets: total output of €1.4 billion in 2026, €1.7 billion in 2027 and more than €2.0 billion by 2028, with an EBITDA margin of 11%. The rocket business remains strategically important but is not yet a profit driver.

The Calendar That Will Decide the Next Leg

Three dates now dominate the near-term outlook. On 8 June, OHB holds its annual general meeting — virtual, with no physical attendance. On 1 July, the RFA ONE launch window opens. And on 6 August, the second-quarter results are due.

The August numbers will be the first real test of whether the operational momentum can keep pace with a valuation that, even after the correction, still trades at roughly 120 times this year’s expected earnings. With little margin for disappointment and a liquidity problem that amplifies every swing, the next few weeks will determine whether OHB’s record backlog and rocket ambitions can finally translate into a more sustainable market price.