OHB's High-Wire Act: Balancing a €1.2B Capital Plan, a New Competitor, and a Record-Breaking Stock Ride

OHB stock drops 5.2% as it seeks €1.2B capital raise from shareholders, faces new satellite production rival Rheinmetall, but strong fundamentals and upcoming catalysts offer hope.

Just as OHB SE prepares to ask shareholders for an unprecedented €1.2 billion in new capital to bankroll its swelling order book, the stock has taken a sharp turn lower — and not just because of the market's typical jitters over dilution. The Bremer space group is now staring down a newly declared rival: Rheinmetall, which plans to convert its Neuss facility to satellite production, stepping directly onto OHB's turf. The stock dropped 5.2% on Thursday alone to €353.50, wiping out 26.4% of its value in a single week.

The selloff underscores how rapidly sentiment can shift in a stock that has rocketed 360% over the past twelve months and still sits more than 450% above its 52-week low of €64. Yet the journey from that floor to the all-time high of €688 — hit just last month — has been anything but smooth. The 50-day moving average, €0.60 above the current price, offers a faint glimmer of potential stabilization, but the relative strength index at 42.3 signals the stock is no longer overbought without confirming a floor.

Beneath the noise, the company's fundamentals remain robust. First-quarter 2026 revenue climbed 15% to €279.3 million, while EBITDA surged 49% to €25.7 million and EBIT reached €15.2 million. The order backlog stands at €3.35 billion, with the Space Systems division alone accounting for €2.68 billion. That pipeline, fueled by ESA programs and expanding European defense budgets, is the reason management is asking for such a hefty financing mandate.

Shareholders will vote on June 8 on a proposal to authorize the issuance of convertible or warrant bonds and profit participation rights with a total face value of up to €1.2 billion, valid through 2031. To backstop the program, the board is proposing a new conditional capital increase (2026/I) of up to 3.84 million shares, which would dilute existing holders by roughly 20%. The cash would largely go toward pre-financing large-scale space projects that require significant upfront investment before contract payments flow in.

Two major catalysts could shift sentiment in the coming weeks. From June 10, the ILA Berlin air show will serve as a platform for OHB to announce new mission contracts — symbolic but often substantive. Then, starting July 1, the company's subsidiary Rocket Factory Augsburg aims to launch the maiden flight of its RFA ONE rocket. A successful flight would give OHB its own "access to space" capability, reducing reliance on third-party launchers for its small satellite business and opening a new growth vector.

The market is also watching the long-awaited SpaceX IPO, expected in the US around mid-June, with valuations estimated as high as $1.8 trillion. Analysts suggest the listing could lift interest in European space stocks as a "benchmark effect," although it also raises the bar for OHB to prove its own earnings power is sustainable. With a market capitalization of €7.9 billion, OHB is no longer a niche player — it is now measured against global giants.

The Rheinmetall threat adds an entirely new layer of strategic risk. The defense giant brings deep financial resources and a steady stream of military contracts, potentially competing for government satellite orders that OHB has long dominated in Germany. For a company whose free float is just 5.7%, the competitive pressure amplifies the stock's already extreme volatility. The annualized 30-day volatility reading of 137% reflects deep disagreement among traders about what OHB is really worth.

All this converges in a four-week window that will define the rest of the year: the AGM vote, the ILA air show, and the RFA ONE launch. Each event carries the potential to reverse the recent slide or deepen it. For now, investors are watching a high-wire act between ambition and exposure — and the safety net is anything but guaranteed.