OHB's Four-Week Gauntlet: From AGM to Rocket Launch, with Liquidity in the Crosshairs

OHB SE shares surge 8% after 15% drop; thin free float causes extreme volatility. Key events: AGM approval for KKR stake placement, ILA air show contracts, and RFA ONE maiden flight on July 1.

Shares in OHB SE have been on a wild ride, and the next four weeks promise no let-up. After shedding nearly 15% last week, the stock bounced back sharply on Monday, climbing 8% to €402. The recovery came as the company’s annual general meeting got under way — the first of three pivotal events crammed into the period through July.

The extreme price swings are baked into OHB’s capital structure. Of the 19.2 million shares outstanding, only around 1.09 million — roughly 5.7% — are freely traded. That thin free float means even tiny trades can move the needle. Company data shows the latest sell-off was triggered by just 800 shares, and the annualised 30-day volatility stands at a staggering 143%. Monday’s snapback was the mirror image of the prior Friday’s 9% slump.

The AGM on Monday is set to approve a financing framework that could dramatically alter that picture. Private equity firm KKR, which owns about 29% of OHB, plans to place a stake worth over €1 billion before the end of June. If successful, the free float would jump to around 26%, sharply improving liquidity and damping volatility. The vote on the capital authorisation is the essential first step.

Two days after the AGM, the ILA Berlin air show opens on 10 June, where OHB will join Airbus, ArianeGroup and DLR as a prominent exhibitor on the ILA STAGE Space platform. The company is expected to unveil new mission contracts, building on a record order backlog that reached €3.35 billion at 31 March — a 45% year-on-year leap. The European Space Agency’s three focus areas for the show — Autonomy and Resilience, Exploration, and Planet and Climate — align closely with OHB’s programmes. Growth in the backlog has been fuelled by ESA contracts and rising EU defence budgets.

The most dramatic event is scheduled for 1 July, when OHB’s rocket subsidiary Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) opens a launch window for the maiden flight of its RFA ONE vehicle from the SaxaVord spaceport in Scotland. Seven satellites are to be carried aloft. OHB management has been careful to temper expectations: historically, fewer than 30% of first flights of new systems succeed, and a failure would be statistically more likely. Moreover, RFA is consolidated at equity, so rocket launches do not flow directly into the group’s profit and loss statement — the subsidiary remains a call option on “access to space” rather than a near-term earnings driver.

None of this detracts from the operational momentum. First-quarter 2026 group revenue rose 15% year on year to €279.3 million, while adjusted EBITDA advanced 37% to €27.3 million. The adjusted EBIT figure climbed even faster, up 63% to €16.8 million. OHB is targeting total output of €1.4 billion for the full year, rising to more than €2.0 billion by 2028, with an EBITDA margin of 11%.

Despite the sharp rally from Friday’s close, the stock still trades about 42% below its all-time high of €688 set on 21 May. Yet the year-to-date gain remains above 200%. Whether the combination of the AGM vote, ILA deal flow and a successful RFA launch can close the gap will depend heavily on one thing: the successful execution of the KKR placement. Without that, the liquidity risk will continue to amplify every market wobble, and the rocket’s launch day will be just one more volatile event in a stock that is never dull.