OHB's Dual Orbits: A €35 Billion Defense Windfall Meets an ESA Science Win

German space champion OHB advances AI-powered military surveillance via KIRK joint venture and secures ESA's SOVA-S climate mission, fueling a 440% stock surge since 2026.

Germany’s space champion OHB has spent the past weeks orchestrating two moves that could not be more different in character — yet both point to the same destination: a pivotal role in European orbital infrastructure. One is a high-tech defense joint venture aimed at delivering AI-powered battlefield surveillance for the Bundeswehr, the other a comparatively modest climate-science mission for the European Space Agency. Together they illustrate the breadth of a company that is now valued at nearly €11 billion.

The defense play took shape as OHB, together with Helsing, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace and Hensoldt, launched the entity KIRK — an acronym for “Artificial Intelligence and Space Competence.” Its immediate target is the SPOCK 2 programme, a follow-up to an existing radar system, designed to track hostile troops and vehicles from orbit using multiple sensor types and artificial intelligence. The programme has yet to be officially confirmed by the German military, but Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has earmarked around €35 billion for space-related spending through 2030. Executives at the Bremen-based group are well aware that any meaningful revenue from such government contracts will take years to materialise, given long development cycles and hefty up-front investments.

In an unusually concrete show of support, the Bundeswehr’s procurement agency, BAAINBw, opened a new site in Bremen on 19 May — expressly to be near OHB’s headquarters. The office will handle naval and space equipment. Bremen’s mayor, Andreas Bovenschulte, expects it to create a three-figure number of jobs. Market observers see the move as a clear competitive advantage for OHB in securing future orders.

A Scientific Side Bet

While the defence narrative dominates headlines, OHB also secured a notable win in civilian space. Its Czech subsidiary, OHB Czechspace, led a bid that saw the SOVA-S Earth-observation mission selected for the next development phase under ESA’s Scout programme — one of only two missions to advance after a ten-month review. SOVA-S will study atmospheric gravity waves at altitudes of 80 to 120 kilometres, data that could improve climate and space-weather models and even enhance GNSS positioning accuracy for aviation. The mission budget is capped at €35 million, with launch expected within three years.

No concrete revenue or margin contribution from SOVA-S has been disclosed, but the selection underscores OHB’s ability to secure institutional European contracts beyond defence — a signal that investors have not missed.

The Market’s Verdict

Shareholders have been pricing in optimism for months. On 21 May, the stock was estimated at €630.50 on Tradegate, a 10.6% daily gain and a 27.1% leap over five sessions. Since the start of 2026, the advance has topped 440%. At the Vienna Börse the price momentarily touched €651, a 16.7% jump. That rally has pushed the 2026 price-to-earnings ratio to 157 and the 2027 multiple to 101 — valuations that many analysts describe as ambitious.

The underlying numbers justify some of the excitement. First-quarter total output came in at €279.3 million, up from €242.4 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose to €27.3 million from €20.0 million, while adjusted EBIT stood at €16.8 million. The order backlog swelled to €3.35 billion, compared with €2.31 billion at the same point in 2025. Within that total, Space Systems accounted for €2.68 billion, Access to Space for €362 million and Digital for €309 million. Management has guided for total output of €1.4 billion in 2026, €1.7 billion in 2027 and over €2 billion from 2028 onward, with the EBITDA margin improving from 11% to above 12%.

The Pinch of Scarcity

One structural factor adds an extra twist to the share price dynamics: the free float is a mere 5.7%. That scarcity has amplified the stock’s moves, as demand chases a thin supply of tradable equity. No financial details on KIRK’s capitalisation have been released, so the market is left to guess the investment required.

The true moment of reckoning will come when the Bundeswehr formally issues the tender for SPOCK 2. If KIRK wins, the high expectations baked into OHB’s valuation will gain a solid anchor. Until then, the next hard catalysts are the annual general meeting on 8 June and the second-quarter figures due on 6 August. For a stock that already trades at a quadruple-digit percentage gain for the year, every new signal counts.