Nvidia Shares Poised for Rebound as China Export Ban Eases

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Nvidia investors have reason for renewed optimism following a period of significant price correction. A major shift in U.S. trade policy is paving the way for the semiconductor leader to restart high-performance chip exports to China, potentially ending its recent consolidation phase.

Beyond the China opportunity, the company's fundamental strength continues to impress market experts. Analysts from Bank of America and Bernstein recently reaffirmed their buy ratings, setting price targets as high as $275.

The bullish outlook is underpinned by highly predictable revenue streams. According to analyst estimates, Nvidia already has visibility on sales of at least $500 billion for the calendar years 2025 and 2026. These forecasts are primarily driven by demand for the new Blackwell chips and do not yet factor in potential additional business from resumed China exports or recent strategic partnerships.

Currently trading at €160.32, the stock sits approximately 10% below its recent 52-week high of €179.62. Its valuation remains attractive relative to other technology giants, with a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of around 0.5.

Policy Shift Opens Door to Key Market

According to an exclusive Reuters report, the change stems from an intervention by U.S. President Donald Trump. The administration has approved the sale of advanced processors to China, contingent on a 25% revenue-sharing agreement. This move effectively overturns the strict export ban enacted under the previous Biden administration.

Based on this development, Nvidia is preparing to ship its high-end H200 processors to China starting in mid-February 2026. For Chinese technology behemoths like Alibaba and ByteDance, this represents a substantial technological leap. The H200 chip offers roughly six times the performance of the deliberately downgraded H20 variant that was previously designed for the Chinese market.

Reports indicate the company plans to initially fulfill orders from existing inventory before ramping up new production capacity in the second quarter of 2026.

Regulatory Approval from Beijing Pending

Despite the green light from Washington, the deal faces a final hurdle. The Chinese government must still grant its approval, and the conditions are currently under review in Beijing.

Government circles are reportedly debating whether to tie the purchase of U.S. semiconductors to a mandatory procurement of domestic chips. This measure would aim to prevent weakening the local semiconductor industry. This remaining regulatory uncertainty is the key risk in an otherwise positive setup.

Investor Focus Turns to Key Date

The next critical milestone for investors will be Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report on February 24, 2026. By that time, it should be clear whether the political obstacles in Beijing have been removed and the export of H200 chips has commenced in earnest.

Should the China market rollout succeed and demand for Blackwell chips develop as anticipated, the path back to all-time highs appears open.