Nvidia’s Seal of Approval Fuels SAP Rally, But Chart Hurdles Remain

Jensen Huang's Computex nod propels SAP shares to seventh straight gain, but the rally must clear the 100-day moving average to confirm momentum.

A well-timed nod from the head of the world’s most valuable chipmaker has injected fresh energy into SAP’s stock, yet the recovery still has to clear a pivotal technical barrier. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang used his Computex keynote in Taipei to single out the Walldorfer software giant as a strategic partner for the next wave of artificial intelligence, a remark that resonated instantly with Frankfurt investors. That endorsement, combined with a broader rotation out of cyclical names and back into technology and software, propelled SAP shares to their seventh consecutive daily gain, adding 7.89 percent over the stretch.

Thursday’s session saw the stock jump 4.16 percent, with one source pegging the close at €162.76, while another recorded it at €161.74 — a narrow spread that nonetheless lands the stock right on the edge of a defining technical level. The 100-day simple moving average sits at €161.78, making the current zone a make-or-break filter for the near-term outlook. A clean break and sustained trade above this line would lend credibility to the rally; failure would push the chart back into neutral territory.

Technical floors and ceilings

Below, the 50-day moving average at €148.75 provides the first line of defence. The current price sits roughly 8.7 to 9.4 percent above that level, underscoring the recent momentum. Should the stock slip back towards that region, technicians would not immediately call it a breakdown — but a decisive drop beneath it would revive focus on the 52-week low of €135.52, struck on 13 May 2026. Since that trough, SAP has regained roughly 19 to 20 percent.

The real test, however, lies above. The 200-day moving average, currently at €189.96, remains more than 14 percent overhead. As long as SAP trades below that benchmark, the current advance is classified as a bear-market rally — a corrective move within a longer downtrend rather than the start of a new uptrend. Year-to-date, the stock is still down 19.4 to 19.9 percent, and the twelve-month decline stands at roughly 40 percent. The 52-week high of €271.60 from June last year is a distant memory.

Momentum without overheating

The 14-day relative strength index registers between 58.5 and 59.2, depending on the source — a constructive reading that signals positive momentum without tipping into overbought territory. That leaves room for additional buying pressure, though the annualised 30-day volatility of 43.99 to 44.41 percent warns that sharp swings remain the norm. In such a high-volatility environment, clear technical markers matter more than day-to-day noise.

Fundamentally, the stock’s direction hinges on the traction of SAP’s cloud and AI strategy. Huang’s comments have reinforced confidence in the company’s positioning as a key enterprise AI enabler, and the “Autonomous Enterprise” roadmap unveiled at the recent Sapphire conference is central to that narrative. Yet past market reactions have shown how sensitive the stock is to cloud-revenue expectations. For now, the chart dictates the short-term rhythm: SAP must hold above the €161.78 zone to keep the recovery story intact, with €148.75 acting as the next safety net if the rally stalls.