Nvidia’s Record $81.6 Billion Quarter Can’t Shake the Post-Earnings Blues

Nvidia's $81.6B revenue and 92% data center growth couldn't halt a 4% stock decline as investors parse new reporting segments, the Vera CPU entry, and $80B buyback.

Nvidia delivered another set of results that would make most companies envious — yet its stock keeps sliding. The chipmaker on May 20 reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $81.6 billion, a 85% surge from a year earlier, and earnings that blew past expectations. But shares have fallen for four consecutive sessions since the print, closing Friday at €185.46 in Frankfurt, a loss of 1.83% on the day and roughly 4% below the pre-earnings level.

The disconnect between Nvidia’s operational momentum and its share price reflects a market that now treats blowout quarters as table stakes. Investors are instead parsing the finer details: a restructuring of how Nvidia reports its business, a new CPU gambit aimed at a $200 billion market, and the lingering shadow of China export controls.

Data Center Dominance and a New Reporting Lens

The data center segment — Nvidia’s growth engine — generated $75.2 billion in revenue, up 92% year-over-year. Within that, networking revenue nearly tripled to around $15 billion. CEO Jensen Huang described demand as “parabolic,” a characterization backed by the numbers: the company guided for second-quarter revenue of $91 billion, implying 95% growth.

Yet the real story for analysts is how Nvidia will make that growth visible. The company has overhauled its segment reporting, splitting its business into two platforms: Data Center and Edge Computing. Inside Data Center, it now distinguishes between hyperscalers and a new category called ACIE (AI clouds, industry, and enterprise). Edge Computing covers AI-enabled devices such as PCs, consoles, robotics, and automotive applications.

The shift gives investors a clearer view of where growth is concentrated. Under the old structure, data center compute revenue rose 77% to $60.4 billion, while networking jumped 199% to $14.8 billion. The new granularity is designed to showcase the breadth of Nvidia’s AI reach — from massive cloud deployments to edge devices.

Vera CPU Opens a New Front

Alongside the quarterly numbers, Nvidia unveiled the Vera CPU, a processor purpose-built for agentic AI — systems that can autonomously perform tasks. Huang pegged the total addressable market for this technology at $200 billion, with Vera CPU sales alone expected to reach $20 billion by 2026. The next-generation Rubin chip platform remains on track for availability in the second half of 2026, with systems set to ship in the third quarter.

The move marks a strategic expansion beyond GPUs into CPU territory, directly competing with incumbents in the data center. Analysts at Evercore ISI raised their price target to $413, while Baird lifted its to $500. KeyBanc maintained “Overweight” with a $310 target, citing the data center growth trajectory and the promise of Vera Rubin.

Cash Pile Fuels Record Capital Returns

Nvidia’s free cash flow hit $48.6 billion in the quarter, enabling a massive capital return program. The board authorized an additional $80 billion in share buybacks on top of the $38.5 billion remaining from prior programs. The quarterly dividend was raised 25-fold, from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.

The scale of the buyback is a vote of confidence from management, but it also underscores the company’s prodigious cash generation. With no debt and a cash hoard that keeps growing, Nvidia has become a cash machine that rivals the largest tech companies.

Technical Picture Sends Mixed Signals

Despite the fundamental strength, the stock is testing key technical levels. Friday’s close of €185.46 sat just below the first support level around €186 ($215.83 in U.S. trading). The next floor lies at roughly €183 ($212.14). The relative strength index stands at 40.5, indicating mild weakness but not an oversold condition.

Short-term moving averages (5-day) now sit above the closing price — a bearish signal — while longer-term averages (50, 100, 200 days) remain well below, keeping the overall structure intact. The near-term challenge is reclaiming the €190 zone ($220). If the stock fails to bounce, the next test could be the 50-day moving average at €168.44, a level that currently trades a 10% premium.

The recent slide has erased some of its year-to-date gain, which still stands at 15.12%. On a 52-week basis, the stock is up nearly 57%. The all-time high of €201.05 is 7.75% above current levels.

Analyst Conviction Remains High

The average price target among 52 analysts stands at $303.27, implying upside of more than 60% from the current U.S. equivalent. Morningstar recently lifted its fair value estimate from $260 to $280, highlighting Nvidia’s wide economic moat from its CUDA software ecosystem.

Yet some strategists caution that the concentrated customer base — a handful of hyperscalers account for the bulk of data center revenue — and already high valuation expectations make the stock vulnerable to any disappointment. The China risk persists: Nvidia’s Q2 guidance of $91 billion assumes zero data center compute revenue from China due to export restrictions.

The market’s next big test will come as the Rubin platform ramps in late 2026 and the Vera CPU begins to contribute. Until then, Nvidia must convince investors that even a parabolic demand trajectory can keep the stock moving in the right direction.