Nvidia's Earnings Were a Slam Dunk – So Why Is the Stock Sitting at 40.5 RSI?

Nvidia posts record $81.6B revenue, $80B buyback, and $91B forecast, but stock falls 2% on China AI market loss and profit-taking; RSI drops to 40.5.

If a record revenue quarter, an $80 billion buyback, a tenfold dividend increase, and a $91 billion guidance weren’t enough to ignite the stock, what is? Nvidia delivered all of that this week, yet the shares slipped nearly 2% on Friday to close at €185.46 — about 8% below the all-time high reached in mid-May. The relative strength index has tumbled to 40.5, a level that typically signals cooling momentum rather than a fresh breakout.

The numbers themselves left little room for disappointment. Revenue surged 85% year-over-year to $81.6 billion, powered by the data-center segment that alone contributed $75.2 billion — a 92% jump. For the current quarter running through July, management has guided for roughly $91 billion in sales, a figure that handily topped analyst expectations. CEO Jensen Huang framed the moment as the early innings of the largest infrastructure buildout in history, pointing to "agentic AI" — autonomous systems that perform productive tasks — as a force scaling rapidly across industries.

What may have given some investors pause is the sheer scale of the capital deployed back to shareholders. The board authorized a fresh $80 billion stock buyback program with no expiration date, adding to existing authorizations to create a war chest of nearly $120 billion for repurchases. At the same time, the quarterly dividend was raised from a symbolic $0.01 to $0.25 per share. In the just-completed quarter alone, Nvidia returned $20 billion to its owners — a signal that the cash-generation machine is running so smoothly that even after massive investments in production and R&D, there is plenty left over for shareholders.

Yet the stock’s inability to hold its gains reflects a market that may be looking past the headline fireworks. One persistent concern is China. Huang acknowledged that Nvidia has largely ceded the Chinese AI-chip market to domestic rival Huawei. The $91 billion Q2 guidance explicitly excludes any revenue from China’s data-center business. That geographic hole, combined with the steep run-up in the stock earlier this year, has created a profit-taking dynamic that even a record quarter couldn’t fully offset.

Technologically, Nvidia is already preparing its next move. The recently unveiled "Vera Rubin" platform, built around a CPU specifically designed for agentic AI workloads, aims to extend the company’s dominance into new segments of the data center. Analyst William Blair remains constructive, arguing that the capital expenditure commitments from big tech houses remain unbroken and that the current dip is merely a pause in a structurally bullish narrative.

Catalysts are not far off. Huang and his team will take the stage at the TD Cowen technology conference on May 28, followed by an appearance at the BofA Global Technology Conference on June 4. Investors will be listening for more detail on Vera Rubin’s demand trajectory, as well as any color on how Nvidia intends to navigate the China headwind. For a stock that just posted its fourth consecutive beat and still traded off, the next two weeks could determine whether the 40.5 RSI marks a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper consolidation.