Nvidia’s Earnings Face a $1.5 Billion Bearish Bet and a China Wildcard

Nvidia set to report Q1 earnings amid record analyst optimism, a rare $1.5 billion bearish bet, and potential China revenue unlock that could reshape its outlook.

Wall Street is bracing for one of the most consequential earnings reports of the season. Nvidia is set to release first?quarter results after Wednesday’s closing bell, with analysts piling on upgrades even as a newly disclosed short position worth more than $1.5 billion casts a rare note of caution. Adding to the mix is a potential breakthrough in China that could unlock billions in untapped revenue.

The bearish bet comes from Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. In its latest 13F filing, the fund revealed put options on Nvidia stock valued at over $1.5 billion, alongside bearish positions on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF totaling more than $2 billion. That puts it squarely against the broader institutional trend: during the first quarter, far more hedge funds added to or initiated Nvidia positions than reduced or closed them. The contrarian wager stands out as a deliberate counterpoint to overwhelmingly bullish sentiment.

That optimism is most visible in a flurry of analyst upgrades. KeyBanc lifted its price target to $300 from $275, citing higher?than?expected Blackwell shipments that could generate an additional $5?7 billion in revenue next quarter. The same analyst sees first?generation Vera Rubin revenue of $3?4 billion. Morgan Stanley kept its “Overweight” rating and raised its target to $285, projecting the data center business will bring in $884 billion over the next two calendar years – well above the consensus estimate of $785 billion. TD Cowen and UBS each increased their targets to $275, with UBS forecasting Nvidia will beat its own revenue guidance by roughly $3 billion.

Yet the biggest wildcard sits far from any analyst model: China. Chief executive Jensen Huang said Monday that the U.S. government has already granted export licenses for H200 chips to certain customers, leaving only Chinese regulatory approvals as the final hurdle. Nvidia’s current guidance for the coming quarter includes no China data center revenue whatsoever. KeyBanc estimates that reopening the market could unlock $13?14 billion in additional sales – a “wildcard” that would fill a hole in the company’s projections. The brokerage expects Nvidia to keep this potential out of its formal outlook, but any positive signal from Beijing would strengthen the bullish case.

The earnings themselves are expected to set a high bar. Analysts forecast earnings per share of $1.78, up from $0.81 a year earlier, on revenue of $78.8?79 billion. Data center revenue is pegged at roughly $72.8 billion. Management had guided for around $78 billion in total sales. The stock already reflects much of that confidence: it closed Monday at €190.58, up 18.4% year?to?date and 15% above its 50?day moving average. Options markets are pricing in a post?earnings swing of nearly 7.5%, well above recent reactions.

Beyond the headline numbers, three themes will dominate the conference call. The ramp of Blackwell remains the primary growth engine, but Vera Rubin is moving into sight faster than many expected. Nvidia says sample chips are already in the hands of key partners, with volume production slated for the second half of the year. Inference token costs for Rubin could be ten times lower than for Blackwell. The combined demand for both architectures is estimated at roughly $500 billion by year?end, with the total AI infrastructure order book exceeding $1 trillion.

Nvidia is also working to extend its reach beyond chips into industrial infrastructure. Stellantis and Accenture plan to use Nvidia’s Omniverse digital?twin technology to simulate and optimize global manufacturing processes before making physical changes. Separately, a deal with Corning will sharply expand production of optical connections in the U.S., securing critical supply chain components for large?scale AI data centers.

With a market capitalization of approximately $5.5 trillion, there is little room for disappointment. The stock’s run?up means that a single earnings beat may not be enough – investors will focus on the outlook for Blackwell and Rubin, and on any China?related commentary. A forecast near $78 billion that excludes the H200 effect would leave the high price targets hanging on future catalysts. The contrast between bullish analysts, a billion?dollar bear, and a dormant China market makes Wednesday’s report anything but routine.