Nvidia’s China Market Reopens Just in Time for a $78.8 Billion Earnings Test

US approves Nvidia's H200 AI chip sales to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, potentially adding 23% to revenue. Nvidia reports earnings May 20 with $78.8B forecast; stock hits all-time high, up 67% YoY.

The US government has granted Nvidia approval to sell its H200 artificial-intelligence chips to about ten major Chinese technology companies, including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance. Each approved customer can order up to 75,000 units, with distribution handled by Lenovo and Foxconn. The decision comes as CEO Jensen Huang joined a US trade delegation to Beijing led by President Trump, marking a potential pivot in trade policy that could add a projected 23% to Nvidia’s annual revenue.

Nvidia now faces a critical earnings report on May 20, when it is expected to post revenue of around $78.8 billion and earnings per share of $1.76 for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. That compares with $44 billion in the same period last year. The company’s market capitalization has swelled to $5.5 trillion, making it the second-most valuable corporation on the planet. Analysts are racing to raise their price targets: Cantor Fitzgerald now sees the stock at $350, Wells Fargo at $315, BofA’s Vivek Arya at $320, and Susquehanna at $275. Of 42 analysts tracked, 40 rate Nvidia a buy.

Beijing’s Green Light and a $1 Trillion Order Pipeline

The H200 is Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI processor, and reopening the Chinese market — which before sanctions represented roughly a quarter of sales — could dramatically alter the growth trajectory. While US regulators have given the go-ahead, Chinese authorities are still reviewing the transactions. The political choreography is unmistakable: Huang inserted himself into high-level talks just as the approvals emerged. Beyond the immediate H200 sales, the real prize is the transition to the next-generation Blackwell platform and the coming Vera Rubin architecture. On the GTC 2026 stage, Huang pegged combined orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin at “at least $1 trillion by 2027” — double earlier estimates. Every signal on the timing of the shift from Blackwell to Rubin will be scrutinized in the earnings call.

Record High and a 67% Annual Rally

Nvidia’s stock hit an all-time high of €201.05 on the German market Thursday before edging back to €200.05, still up 24% year to date and roughly 67% higher than a year ago. The stock’s forward multiple has expanded as investors price in both the China reopening and the relentless demand for AI infrastructure. The four largest cloud hyperscalers are expected to pour some $700 billion into capital expenditure in 2026, the bulk of it flowing into Nvidia’s chip ecosystem.

When Nvidia reports next week, the focus will be threefold: the pace of the Blackwell ramp, the revenue contribution from the H200 China sales if any have already been booked, and the roadmap for the Vera Rubin platform. Analysts at BofA describe the quarterly report, the Computex trade show in June, and the Rubin launch as a triple catalyst. With net income expected to have more than doubled year on year, the market is looking for proof that the $5.5 trillion valuation rests on more than just momentum. The China concession has already provided one powerful tailwind — now the numbers have to deliver.