Nvidia’s China Door Creaks Open Just as Earnings Put a $78 Billion Revenue Test in Play

Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday with $78B revenue expected, as new China export licenses for H200 chips open $26B pipeline, potentially boosting guidance.

Wall Street has been fixated on two numbers ahead of Nvidia’s midweek earnings report: the staggering $78 billion in quarterly revenue analysts expect, and the sudden reversal of fortune in China, where new export licenses have unlocked a potential $26 billion sales pipeline. The combination sets up the most consequential earnings release for the chipmaker in months, with the market now weighing whether the reopening of the Chinese market can sustain the stock’s 20% year-to-date advance.

The shares closed at €193.90 on Friday, down 3.56% on the session, after reports surfaced that the Biden administration had quietly approved the shipment of up to 750,000 H200 processors to roughly ten Chinese technology companies, including Alibaba. The pullback looked more like profit-taking after a blistering rally than a trend reversal — Nvidia remains within 4% of its mid-May record high.

The H200 Bonanza

Those new licenses represent a material shift in the trade landscape. Previously, uncertainty around China had been one of the few clouds over an otherwise flawless growth narrative. Now, with approvals in hand, analysts estimate the H200 deliveries could add as much as $26 billion in incremental revenue, a sum that is not yet fully reflected in consensus estimates. For context, that is roughly one-third of the entire revenue forecast for the current quarter.

The timing is critical. Nvidia will host its first post-approval earnings call on Wednesday, giving management a platform to quantify how much of that additional demand factors into the forward outlook. The market will be listening closely for any guidance on H200 shipments specifically.

The Numbers in Sight

For the fiscal first quarter ended in April, the Street expects revenue of $78 billion to $78.5 billion, with the data-center segment contributing approximately $73 billion. Earnings per share are forecast at $1.75–$1.77, while gross margins are seen in the 74.5%–75.2% range. Looking ahead, analysts are projecting second-quarter guidance of $86 billion to $87 billion, a figure that could be revised upward if management incorporates the China tailwind.

The product mix is also evolving. Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell architecture is ramping up and will increasingly shape gross margins, while the company is already laying groundwork for the Vera Rubin platform. CEO Jensen Huang has previously indicated that combined orders for Blackwell and Rubin could exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2027, underscoring the duration of the AI investment cycle.

Analyst Targets Keep Rising

Bank of America recently lifted its price objective on Nvidia to $320, citing an addressable market for AI data centers of $1.7 trillion by the end of this decade. TD Cowen and Susquehanna are both at $275, reflecting a consensus that the AI build-out has years left to run — not just for training models, but for the inference workloads that are increasingly embedded in everyday applications.

The key question on Wednesday is whether Nvidia chooses to embed the China effect explicitly in its outlook. A clear commitment to H200 deliveries would provide the concrete catalyst the stock needs to break above its recent trading range. For now, the market is pricing in a beat on both revenue and earnings, but the real prize lies in what the company says about the next leg of demand — and whether Beijing’s buyers are truly back.