Nvidia’s Asian Supply Chain Tightens as Cerebras IPO and Earnings Loom

Nvidia's Asian supply chain concentration hits 90% as Cerebras files for IPO, intensifying competition ahead of a pivotal earnings report.

The chipmaker’s reliance on Far East partners has surged to a record 90% of production costs, up from roughly 65% a year ago. That concentration has delivered enormous economies of scale, but it also bundles significant risk into a handful of suppliers just as Nvidia faces a new competitive challenge and a pivotal earnings report.

The Supply Chain Squeeze

Nvidia’s manufacturing chain now stretches across a narrow set of Asian giants. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) handles chip production, while SK Hynix and Samsung supply the highly sought-after high-bandwidth memory. Final assembly of server racks falls to contract manufacturers such as Foxconn and Quanta. This tight web has created fierce internal competition for resources: Nvidia’s push into “physical AI”—new platforms for robotics and autonomous driving built on the Blackwell architecture—now vies for the same scarce 3-nanometer wafers from TSMC that the company needs for its lucrative data-center graphics cards.

Global shortages of chip-packaging materials add further strain. Memory chips alone are expected to consume nearly a third of total data-center spending by major cloud providers this year, a fourfold increase from 2023.

To hedge against these vulnerabilities, Nvidia has pledged up to $500 billion in investment toward U.S.-based manufacturing. But the immediate production reality remains anchored in Asia.

A Rival Steps Into the Ring

While Nvidia tightens its supply chains, a competitor is preparing to go public. Cerebras Systems, a semiconductor startup specializing in wafer-scale chips designed for AI workloads, officially filed for its IPO on Tuesday. The company counts Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI among its customers, and its listing is widely seen as a signal that the AI-chip market is broadening beyond Nvidia’s dominance.

Analysts view the Cerebras IPO as a marker of intensifying competition, though Nvidia remains the clear leader in both AI training and inference hardware. The timing—just ahead of Nvidia’s own quarterly report—adds an extra layer of scrutiny.

Earnings Expectations and Market Positioning

Nvidia reports results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 on May 20, covering the period ended April 26, 2026. The bar is high: CEO Jensen Huang has previously projected platform revenues of at least $1 trillion by 2027. Analysts are forecasting a revenue surge of up to 78%, fueled by relentless demand for AI infrastructure.

Options activity points to institutional confidence, with the bulk of trades flowing into call positions. A recent SEC filing dated April 28 also revealed that a large institutional investor had built a passive stake exceeding 5%.

The stock currently trades around €170, roughly 7% below its 52-week high of €182 set in late April. On a year-to-date basis, shares have gained nearly 70%. The relative strength index sits near 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

The Split Question

With the U.S.-listed shares hovering around $200, speculation has resurfaced about a potential stock split. Nvidia last executed a 10-for-1 split in 2024 when the stock was trading near $1,200. Whether management moves again depends on whether the shares can push toward new all-time highs—and that trajectory will be determined by the May 20 report.

What’s at Stake

If Nvidia delivers on earnings and provides a strong outlook, the all-time high of roughly €182 could quickly come back into play. A disappointing forecast, however, would likely train the spotlight on the company’s heavy regional supply-chain concentration and the risks it carries. With Cerebras waiting in the wings and production bottlenecks unresolved, the stakes for Nvidia’s next chapter have rarely been higher.