Nvidia’s $81 Billion Quarter Arrives Amid a China Stalemate That Could Rewrite the AI Trade

Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 results on May 20 with Wall Street expecting $78.8B revenue. Despite record stock highs, H200 shipments to China remain blocked pending political resolution.

The numbers paint a picture of relentless momentum. When Nvidia reports its fiscal first-quarter results after the US market close on May 20, Wall Street expects revenue of $78.8 billion and earnings per share of $1.77 — numbers that would already blow past management’s own $78 billion forecast. UBS has penciled in an even more aggressive $81 billion. But the stock’s record run is colliding with a political bottleneck that no earnings call can easily fix.

Shares closed at €201.05 on Thursday, a fresh 52-week high, pushing the chipmaker’s market capitalisation to roughly $5.71 trillion. Over the past month the stock has gained 20.37%, while the one-year return stands at 66.71%. The valuation leaves no room for disappointment, yet the biggest variable in Nvidia’s growth story is no longer demand — it is diplomacy.

The H200 Approval That Isn’t Moving

Washington has authorised roughly a dozen Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s H200 AI processor, the second-most powerful chip in the company’s lineup. The list includes Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com. Each approved customer can order up to 75,000 units, with deliveries arranged through distributors such as Lenovo and Foxconn.

On paper, that should be a significant opening. Before sanctions choked off sales, China accounted for about a quarter of Nvidia’s total revenue. In practice, not a single H200 chip has reached Chinese soil. Buyers have paused their orders after Beijing reportedly pressed domestic technology firms to hold off. The State Council is conducting a supply-chain review, and customs officials have allegedly blocked shipments. Local regulators have warned companies to avoid purchases unless absolutely necessary.

The result is a gray zone: the US has opened the door, but China is keeping it shut for now. Nvidia’s path back into its second-largest market depends on a political resolution, not a sales pitch.

Huang’s High-Stakes Beijing Visit

Nvidia chief Jensen Huang flew to Peking on May 14, joining a US business delegation led by President Donald Trump. The invitation came directly from Trump, and Huang’s last-minute inclusion underscores how critical the H200 stalemate has become. His mission: secure the green light from Beijing that would allow the shipments Washington has already approved.

The market has largely brushed aside the friction so far, focusing instead on the super-cycle in AI infrastructure. Analysts are racing to lift their price targets. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $350, arguing that Nvidia’s compute capacity is effectively sold out for 2026 and 2027. Bank of America set a target of $320, pointing to a $1.7 trillion market for AI data centres by decade’s end. Wells Fargo targets $315, and UBS raised its view to $275 with a buy rating.

Beyond the Quarter: Blackwell, Rubin and the $1 Trillion Promise

The May 20 report will deliver more than just backward-looking numbers. Investors will focus on three narrative threads: the ramp of the Blackwell architecture, the outlook for the Vera-Rubin platform, and any update on the H200 China logjam. Nvidia has said it expects cumulative revenue from Blackwell and Rubin of $1 trillion between 2025 and 2027 — a figure that assumes both technical execution and geopolitical stability.

Management has already signaled that Blackwell is scaling fast and that Rubin, the next-generation platform, will provide the next growth catalyst. The earnings call will test whether the company can maintain that trajectory while the China question remains unresolved.

For now, the rally has continued uninterrupted. The stock’s 200-day moving average sits 26.59% below the current price, a sign of how stretched momentum has become. The coming weeks will show whether that gap is a sign of strength or a warning that the China stalemate — and the earnings result — will ultimately decide the next leg of the move.