Nvidia’s $5.7 Trillion Run-Up Hinges on More Than Just an Earnings Beat

Nvidia's market cap surpassed $5.7T after US approved H200 chip sales to Chinese tech giants, but deal conditional; analysts raise targets ahead of May 20 earnings.

The chipmaker’s share price has already priced in perfection ahead of its May 20 earnings release, but a fresh geopolitical twist and a string of strategic moves have given investors fresh reasons to stay bullish. Nvidia’s market capitalisation surged past $5.7 trillion in recent days, briefly overtaking the entire value of silver as a global asset class, after Washington granted permission for the sale of its H200 Blackwell-generation chips to roughly a dozen Chinese technology giants. The approval, delivered with unusual fanfare when CEO Jensen Huang joined Donald Trump’s official delegation to Beijing aboard Air Force One alongside the chiefs of Apple, Tesla and Boeing, sent the stock to an all-time high of $236.46.

Yet the China deal remains conditional. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made clear on May 15 that the final import decision rests with Chinese authorities, who are now reviewing their own supply-chain security standards before any hardware physically crosses the border. Potential buyers include Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com. For Nvidia, the Chinese market represents a roughly $50 billion segment that management deliberately excluded from the company’s official guidance — meaning any concrete progress on re?entering that arena could provide the next major catalyst.

The stock has already climbed more than 63% on a 12-month basis, and in Frankfurt it changed hands at just under €197 on Friday, a slight pullback from the prior day's 52-week high of €201.05. That modest retreat reflects a well?documented pattern: in three of the last four quarters, Nvidia shares have actually fallen after releasing quarterly numbers, because the market habitually prices in results that exceed even the most optimistic internal forecasts.

Analysts are nevertheless scrambling to lift their price targets. Both TD Cowen and UBS now have a $275 target, with TD Cowen’s Joshua Buchalter pointing to cloud providers’ massive capex plans and a pipeline for Blackwell and next?generation Rubin chips that already exceeds $1 trillion. Wells Fargo jumped to $315 from $265, citing an expected rise in global AI compute capacity from 9.2 GW to 25.2 GW by 2029. Cantor Fitzgerald went further, setting a $350 target on the view that Nvidia’s production capacity for 2026 and 2027 is effectively sold out as agentic AI demand accelerates. Bank of America raised its target to $320 from $300 and now estimates the addressable market for AI accelerators at $1.2 trillion.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2027 — results due after US markets close on May 20 — Nvidia has guided for revenue of around $78 billion. The Street expects roughly $78.8 billion, and Goldman Sachs believes the actual number could beat the consensus by as much as $2 billion. UBS is even more bullish, forecasting $81 billion. On the bottom line, analysts project adjusted earnings per share of $1.77.

The second?quarter outlook will carry at least as much weight as the reported numbers. The consensus already calls for revenue of $86 billion, and any forecast below that threshold has historically been interpreted as a slowdown, triggering immediate share price declines. The underlying demand engine remains intact: Microsoft plans $190 billion in capital expenditure this calendar year, Amazon around $200 billion, and Alphabet has flagged a sharp acceleration in its already heavy investment spending for next year.

Away from the earnings calendar, Nvidia is also locking in the physical infrastructure that will underpin its growth. The company has struck a multi?year partnership with Corning, committing $500 million upfront with options to invest an additional $3.2 billion through warrants. The goal is a massive expansion of US production capacity for optical connectivity technology — glass fibre designed to replace copper in AI data centres. Corning will build three new manufacturing plants in North America, reducing Nvidia’s reliance on overseas supply chains.

Adding to the positive narrative, reports have surfaced of a potential share buyback programme worth up to $150 billion over the next twelve months. While still unconfirmed, an item on the company’s agenda that would support investor sentiment as Nvidia enters the next stage of its product cycle. The first “Vera Rubin” architecture is scheduled to start production this quarter, with server?rack mass production expected to begin in September or October.

With a $5.7 trillion valuation, a reopened door to China, a multi?billion?dollar infrastructure play and a buyback rumour all converging on the same earnings deadline, Nvidia faces the unusual challenge of living up to its own towering expectations. The numbers on May 20 will matter, but so will the narrative — especially on China and the pace of next?generation chip rollouts.