Nvidia’s $308 Target Meets a China Crosscurrent: Analysts Raise the Bar Before Earnings

Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 2027 amid raised targets from GF Securities and KeyBanc, Goldman's $1 trillion data center AI bet, and a China chip blockade that may cap upside.

The spotlight shifts to Nvidia on Wednesday, when the chipmaker reports fiscal first-quarter results for 2027. With the stock already up 22% year-to-date in Frankfurt and more than 60% over the past twelve months, expectations are high — but the path to this earnings release has been anything but straightforward. Two major banks have raised their price targets, a long-term trillion-dollar revenue thesis has surfaced from Goldman Sachs, and a fresh China headache threatens to cap the upside.

Upgrades from Wall Street’s Bull Camp

GF Securities lifted its target to $308 from $292 on Monday, with analyst Jeff Pu highlighting the potential for a share buyback program backed by Nvidia’s hefty cash pile. Across the aisle, KeyBanc Capital Markets boosted its own target to $300 and maintained an Overweight rating. The bank expects Blackwell GPU shipments to climb by 150,000 to 200,000 units quarter over quarter and estimates that the Rubin architecture will generate its first revenue — between $3 billion and $4 billion — sooner than many anticipate.

These upgrades come just two days before the company delivers its numbers. The options market is pricing in an 8% swing either way, implying a range of roughly $217 to $255. That’s a wider move than the 5.7% implied ahead of February’s report, when the stock barely budged even as revenue surged 73% from a year earlier. Investors are bracing for volatility this time around.

Goldman’s Billion-Dollar Bet on Agentic AI

In a May 17 analysis that received less headline attention, Goldman Sachs sketched out a scenario where Nvidia’s data center business could eventually generate $1 trillion in annual revenue. The driver: agentic AI — autonomous systems that reason, learn from experience, and execute tasks independently. That shift goes well beyond the current generative AI wave, requiring much higher bandwidth and memory capacity. Goldman sees this as key to Nvidia defending its roughly 75% gross margin even as production costs rise.

The near-term consensus is more humble but still robust. Wall Street’s average forecast calls for quarterly revenue of roughly $78 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.77. The data center segment, the engine of growth, is expected to chip in around $73 billion, with some estimates putting that figure above $65 billion. The biggest unknown, however, remains China.

The China Puzzle: Blockade and Approved Sales in Tandem

Beijing threw a wrench in the works last week when President Donald Trump confirmed after a summit in the Chinese capital that the country is blocking domestic companies from buying Nvidia’s H200 chips. China is instead pushing ahead with homegrown alternatives, even as the U.S. has granted export licenses for H200 sales to roughly ten Chinese firms — including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management estimates that these approved sales could add 3% to 5% to Nvidia’s 2027 revenue, and potentially 10% in a best-case scenario. The stock dipped 4.4% in recent sessions on the broader China uncertainty.

Infrastructure Deals and the Rubin Roadmap

Parallel to the geopolitical maneuvering, Nvidia deepened its ties with data center operator IREN Limited. The two companies plan to build up to 5 gigawatts of AI infrastructure together. Nvidia secured the right to buy as many as 30 million IREN shares at $70 apiece over five years — a potential $2.1 billion investment subject to regulatory clearance. IREN also signed a five-year contract for managed GPU cloud services worth $3.4 billion.

What investors really care about, though, is the outlook for the second half of 2026. That means the production yields and delivery schedules for GB200 systems, the status of the Vera Rubin platform — which is slated for mass production by year-end — and the trajectory of sovereign AI programs, which analysts estimate at over $30 billion for the full fiscal year. Wednesday’s numbers will matter, but the forward guidance on these three fronts will likely determine whether Nvidia can justify the next leg of its valuation.