Nvidia: China Market Share Hits Zero, $170 Billion Wiped Out, and a Pivotal Earnings Report Looms

Nvidia shares see wild swings as China revenue drops to zero; all eyes on May 20 earnings for Blackwell, Vera Rubin updates, and AI demand outlook.

The chipmaker’s stock staged a dramatic two-act drama last week. On Thursday, Nvidia set a fresh all-time closing high in the US at $235.74, pushing its market cap past $5.7 trillion. By Friday’s close, the euphoria had evaporated. The stock tumbled more than 4.6%, erasing roughly $170 billion in market value in a single session. In Frankfurt, the shares ended at €193.88, down 3.57%, though they still booked a weekly gain of 6.18%.

That volatility reflects a deeper tension. While Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in AI chips, its position in China – once a pillar of revenue – has collapsed. Chief Executive Jensen Huang delivered a blunt assessment on April 30, telling analysts the company’s direct market share in China had fallen to zero. That is a staggering reversal from the over 90% global dominance Huang said Nvidia once enjoyed. Bernstein had earlier projected a decline to about 8% in 2024; Huang’s remark suggests the actual figure is even lower. In the prior fiscal year, China including Hong Kong generated $19.67 billion in sales for Nvidia. For the current first quarter, the company has penciled in zero revenue from the region.

The US government has authorised sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips to Chinese customers such as Alibaba and Tencent, but deliveries have not yet occurred. Meanwhile, Beijing is pushing its domestic chip industry. Huawei plans to double production of its Ascend 910C accelerator to 600,000 units this year, and Chinese manufacturers now account for roughly 41% of the AI server market. As a result, even relaxed export rules may not automatically translate into reopened doors for Nvidia.

Against this backdrop, investors are sharpening their focus on the 20 May earnings release. Nvidia’s management has guided for revenue of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, while the consensus estimate sits slightly higher at $78.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to come in at $1.77. The cost of export restrictions is already visible: in the first fiscal quarter of 2026, the company booked $4.5 billion in charges related to the curbs.

Analysts have been racing to raise their price targets. Vivek Arya at Bank of America sees the stock hitting $320, arguing that the total addressable market for AI data centres could balloon to $1.7 trillion by 2030. UBS has lifted its target to $275 and maintains a buy recommendation ahead of the numbers.

Beyond the headline figures, the earnings call will centre on three operational milestones. Volume production and delivery of the Blackwell architecture need confirmation; the timeline for the next-generation Vera Rubin platform, expected in the second half of 2026, will be scrutinised; and growth in the NVLink networking business, which surged 263% in the prior quarter, should provide an update on the network side of Nvidia’s portfolio.

The broader demand picture remains a powerful tailwind. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta together plan capital expenditure of roughly $725 billion in 2026, an increase of about 77% year on year, fuelling the AI infrastructure build-out that directly benefits Nvidia. The Vera Rubin platform is positioned to capture the next wave of training and inference workloads.

Options pricing suggests the stock could swing around 10% in the days around the report. If the support level near $224 holds, a positive earnings surprise could trigger the next leg higher. A cautious outlook, however, could quickly test the 50-day moving average. The China void remains a stubborn overhang, but for now, the market is betting that the core AI story still has plenty of room to run.