Novo Nordisk: Zenagamtide and Etavopivat Shine, but the Market Only Sees CagriSema

Despite a 46% share drop and CagriSema setback, Novo Nordisk's pipeline shows promise with Zenagamtide obesity data and Etavopivat sickle cell success. A €15B buyback has failed to lift sentiment.

Novo Nordisk’s shares continue to trade under a dark cloud, down roughly 46% over the past twelve months and hovering near €37—a far cry from the 52-week high of €70.13. The market has punished the Danish pharma giant for a string of setbacks, most notably the disappointing CagriSema study data. Yet behind the scenes, the company’s pipeline is quietly delivering breakthroughs that investors have all but ignored. From a novel obesity candidate to a potential blockbuster in rare disease, the lab is firing on multiple cylinders.

A €15 billion stock buyback fails to reassure

Management has tried to shore up confidence with a massive share repurchase program worth up to 15 billion Danish kroner, running until February 2027. By early June, Novo had already scooped up 18.76 million B-shares at an average price of around 264 kroner, bringing treasury stock to nearly 1% of the company’s capital. So far, the buyback has failed to arrest the slide. The stock remains about 11% below its 200-day moving average, and the 47% drop from the 52-week high underscores just how deep the bearish sentiment runs.

New data from New Orleans: Zenagamtide shows promise

The most significant news of recent weeks came out of New Orleans on June 5, when Novo presented Phase 2 results for Zenagamtide, a dual-receptor agonist. After 36 weeks, patients lost up to 14.6% of their body weight. The molecule is designed to succeed semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, and a Phase 3 study is scheduled to begin in the second half of 2026. The market barely reacted. That may be a mistake—Zenagamtide represents a next-generation approach that could extend Novo’s lead in obesity if the data hold up in larger trials.

CagriSema: the make-or-break catalyst

All eyes, however, remain fixed on CagriSema. The FDA is expected to decide on its approval for weight loss in the fourth quarter of 2026. In a head-to-head comparison, CagriSema delivered 23% weight loss, versus 25.5% for Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. That gap has weighed heavily on investor sentiment, even though a 23% reduction remains clinically impressive. Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan both rate the stock neutral, with JPMorgan recently cutting its price target to 250 kroner. Analysts have slashed revenue forecasts for CagriSema by as much as 63%, and estimates for Amycretin have also been trimmed sharply.

Beyond obesity: Etavopivat targets sickle cell disease

While the obesity wars grab headlines, Novo has quietly made progress in a different therapeutic area. The Phase 3 study of Etavopivat for sickle cell disease hit all primary endpoints, reducing painful crises by 27%. Nearly half of patients showed a positive hemoglobin response. The company plans to file for its first approval by the end of 2026. With roughly 8 million people worldwide living with sickle cell disease, this could open a stable, high-margin revenue stream—a valuable hedge against the cutthroat competition in obesity and the looming patent cliffs on older products.

Wegovy’s pill form is already flying off pharmacy shelves

In the nearer term, the oral version of Wegovy is building momentum at a remarkable pace. In the US alone, over 3 million prescriptions were written in just five months—one of the strongest pharmaceutical launches on record. Novo plans to roll out the pill internationally in the second half of the year, with the United Arab Emirates already granting approval. That success, however, has done little to shift the stock’s trajectory. Investors remain preoccupied with the competitive threat from Eli Lilly, which has overtaken Novo in the obesity market and is applying downward pressure on US list prices.

A stock that may have already priced in the worst

The challenges are real: a lowered 2026 outlook, pricing headwinds, patent expirations, and an aggressive rival. Shares have fallen 16% since the start of the year. Yet the RSI sits at 50.8, a neutral reading that often precedes a directional move. The bear case appears well discounted. Novo’s robust pipeline—Zenagamtide, CagriSema, Etavopivat, and the Wegovy pill—offers multiple catalysts over the next 12 to 18 months. The stock found a floor near €30.25 in March, and the strong research data from recent weeks reinforce that base. For patient investors, the science may eventually pull the share price higher.