Novo Nordisk Weighs Strong Pipeline Data Against Steep Revenue Warning as Shares Languish

Novo Nordisk stock plunges 41% in a year despite strong uptake of oral Wegovy and positive CagriSema trial results, as investor focus shifts to U.S. pricing pressure and 2026 revenue decline.

Novo Nordisk’s stock closed at €37.27 on Friday, down 1.01% on the day and nursing a 41.55% loss over the past twelve months. The sharp decline comes despite two major positive developments that would normally buoy a healthcare name: a rapid uptake of its oral Wegovy and a robust set of Phase 3 results for the experimental combination therapy CagriSema.

The disconnect between operational momentum and market sentiment has become the central theme for the Danish drugmaker. While the clinical pipeline continues to deliver, investors are fixated on pricing pressure in the U.S., intensifying competition, and a revenue outlook that calls for a 5% to 13% currency-adjusted decline in 2026.

Wegovy Tablet Prescriptions Surge, Mostly from New Patients

More than three million U.S. prescriptions for the oral Wegovy formulation have been written in just over five months since launch. Crucially, over 80% of those patients had not previously used a GLP-1 therapy, supporting the company’s thesis that the pill will expand the obesity treatment market rather than merely cannibalise existing injectable users.

The first million scripts were filled within twelve weeks, and the next two million took only ten more weeks to accumulate. The milestone arrives as Novo Nordisk presents a raft of analyses at the American Diabetes Association meeting in New Orleans, where it also hosted an R&D investor event on Sunday to explain the breadth of its pipeline advantage.

CagriSema Data Show Clear Edge Over Semaglutide Alone

At the same ADA congress, Novo Nordisk unveiled comprehensive Phase 3 results for CagriSema — a fixed-dose combination of the amylin analogue cagrilintide and the GLP-1 agonist semaglutide. In the REIMAGINE-2 trial, which included 2,713 participants, the combination cut HbA1c by 1.91 percentage points and body weight by 14.2% after 68 weeks. Semaglutide monotherapy delivered a 1.75 percentage point drop in HbA1c and a 10.2% reduction in weight, confirming CagriSema’s superiority.

Additional data from REIMAGINE-1, where patients had failed diet and exercise alone, showed a 13.8% weight loss. In REIMAGINE-3, which tested CagriSema as an add-on to basal insulin, HbA1c fell from 8.8% to 6.5% and weight declined by 12.0%. The results were simultaneously published in The Lancet and The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

Novo Nordisk submitted CagriSema for FDA approval in obesity back in December 2025, with a decision expected between late 2026 and early 2027. Despite the compelling clinical picture, medical director Filip Krag Knop acknowledged that market expectations for weight reduction had been set unrealistically high, and the stock has suffered from the gap between hypothetical targets and real-world outcomes.

A Valuation Reset after Years of Premium Pricing

The current share price of €37.27 represents a roughly 47% discount to the 52-week high of €70.13 touched in June 2025. The stock has recovered from a low of €30.25 but remains under its 200-day moving average by about 10%, while the relative strength index sits at 48 — neutral territory.

The price-to-earnings ratio has compressed to around 10, a sharp re-rating from the elevated multiples that prevailed during the peak of the Wegovy hype cycle. That compression reflects the sobering 2026 revenue guidance, which is driven by U.S. price negotiations and heightened competition from Eli Lilly and others.

Medicare Access and a New Patient Runway

A significant catalyst is set to begin on July 1, 2026, when the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program opens to eligible beneficiaries with obesity. Under the program, Wegovy — both injectable and oral forms — will be available with a monthly copay of $50. The net monthly price agreed with CMS is $245, a fraction of the list price of over $1,000.

The program was initially set to expire at the end of 2026 but has been extended through 2027, giving Novo Nordisk more time to convert new patients. CEO Mike Doustdar has flagged the potential to add around 15 million patients in the U.S. through this channel, though he cautioned that full access will not happen overnight.

Meanwhile, the company is preparing for the first international launches of the Wegovy tablet outside the U.S., with the United Arab Emirates among the initial markets. A share buyback programme is also in progress: a tranche of up to 11.2 billion Danish kroner, part of a total framework of up to 15 billion kroner, was initiated in May.

The Calendar Ahead

Investors will watch the next two corporate events closely for signs that the operational story is regaining credibility. Half-year results are due on August 5, 2026, followed by the Capital Markets Day on September 21. By then, Novo Nordisk will need to demonstrate that the strength of the Wegovy pill launch, the CagriSema data, and the Medicare bridge can together offset the revenue headwinds that have kept the stock pinned near multi-year lows.