Novo Nordisk Turns the Page: EU Backs Oral Wegovy as Liver Disease Data and a DKK 11.2bn Buyback Lift the Outlook

Novo Nordisk launches DKK 11.2B buyback, receives EU approval for two new Wegovy formulations, posts strong oral tablet sales, but faces 2026 margin decline and intensifying competition.

Novo Nordisk has thrown its weight behind both its pipeline and its own shares. The Danish drugmaker kicked off a buyback programme worth up to 11.2 billion Danish kroner, to run through February 2027, part of a larger 15 billion kroner tranche. The move signals confidence even as the stock has shed roughly 13% since the start of the year.

Just days earlier, Europe’s medicines committee gave the green light to two new Wegovy formulations. On 22 May, the CHMP recommended approval for an oral tablet containing 25 mg of semaglutide and a once-weekly 7.2 mg injectable pen. Both products target obesity and are expected to launch in the EU in the third quarter. The tablet, if authorised, would be the first oral GLP-1 treatment for weight loss in the region — a strategic win given that many patients shy away from injections.

The clinical evidence is compelling. In the OASIS 4 study, the daily tablet produced an average weight loss of 16.6%. The higher-dose injection, tested in STEP UP, delivered 20.7%. Roughly one in three patients shed at least a quarter of their body weight. In the US, where the tablet has been available since January, it has already racked up more than 2 million prescriptions. First-quarter revenue from the product reached 2.3 billion kroner, nearly double the 1.16 billion analysts had pencilled in. Crucially, 80% of users were new to GLP-1 therapy, suggesting the oral formulation is expanding the addressable market rather than cannibalising Wegovy’s injectable franchise.

Yet the rosy demand picture is clouded by margin pressure. Novo Nordisk has guided for a 4% to 12% decline in both revenue and operating profit in 2026 on a constant-currency basis. Competition is intensifying: Eli Lilly launched its own oral obesity drug, Foundayo, in the US in April. Generics are also creeping in — India has already seen copycat semaglutide products, Canada has approved them, and pricing concessions in China are weighing on international margins.

The company is therefore looking beyond weight loss to diversify its revenue streams. At the EASL congress in Barcelona this week, Novo Nordisk presented fresh data on semaglutide in MASH, a progressive liver disease that affects an estimated 250 million people worldwide, nine out of ten of whom are undiagnosed. The phase 3 ESSENCE programme had already shown that 2.4 mg of semaglutide significantly reduces liver inflammation and fibrosis. New subgroup analyses now confirm a favourable safety profile, including in menopausal women. The move into hepatology could unlock a massive, underserved market.

Elsewhere in the pipeline, Etavopivat — a sickle cell disease candidate — posted a 27% reduction in vaso-occlusive crises in the phase 3 HIBISCUS trial, with a regulatory filing planned for the fourth quarter. In China, Novo Nordisk is preparing to launch Kyinsu, a once-weekly combination of insulin icodec and semaglutide that received approval in March.

On the trading floor, the stock has clawed back some ground. Shares closed at 38.89 euros, up 0.39% on the day, and have gained 10.59% over the past 30 days. That recovery still leaves the equity trading below its 200-day moving average of 42.14 euros. The next catalysts — EU Wegovy launch data, a capital markets day on 21 September, and a US decision on the combination therapy CagriSema in the fourth quarter — will test whether the rebound has staying power. For now, Novo Nordisk is betting on its own pipeline and its own shares to navigate a landscape where growth alone is no longer enough.