Novo Nordisk Takes Istanbul by Storm as 52 Abstracts Put Pipeline Under the Microscope

Novo Nordisk presents 52 studies at ECO, showcasing Wegovy's US prescription lead over Eli Lilly while new CagriSema data could define its pipeline recovery.

The battle for the future of obesity treatment shifts to Istanbul this week, where Novo Nordisk arrives at the European Congress on Obesity (ECO) armed with a data arsenal that could either cement its recovery or expose fresh fault lines. The Danish drugmaker is presenting 52 scientific abstracts across four days, covering everything from its blockbuster Wegovy pill to the experimental combination therapy CagriSema — a pipeline candidate that has already delivered one painful surprise this year.

The Pill That’s Leaving Eli Lilly in the Dust

The numbers coming out of the US pharmacy channel tell a story of dominance. In the week ending April 24, prescriptions for Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy hit roughly 135,000. By comparison, Eli Lilly’s competing oral product Foundayo managed just 7,335 scripts in its fourth week on the market — a gap that underscores just how far ahead the Danish group has raced in the race for a convenient, once-daily obesity pill.

The company’s oral Wegovy has now surpassed 2 million total prescriptions since its US launch, and in the week through April 17, weekly volumes crossed the 200,000 threshold. Chief executive Mike Doustdar recently told CNBC that Wegovy now accounts for 65% of all new obesity prescriptions in the United States, describing the trajectory as a “turnaround.”

On Friday, Novo will present an indirect head-to-head comparison of its oral semaglutide against Eli Lilly’s competing molecule — a session that investors will be watching closely for any sign that the competitive gap is narrowing.

CagriSema: The Achilles’ Heel That Could Define the Year

For all the enthusiasm around the Wegovy pill, the most closely watched data in Istanbul may well be the CagriSema readouts. The combination therapy, which pairs a GLP-1 receptor agonist with a long-acting amylin analogue, suffered a major setback earlier this year when Novo itself showed it was inferior to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. That revelation sent the stock to a five-year low.

At ECO, the REDEFINE-1 program will present new data on CagriSema’s effects on body composition, muscle strength and physical function — metrics that could help differentiate the drug if the weight-loss efficacy gap proves difficult to close. A separate presentation on Tuesday will examine whether weight loss with semaglutide 7.2 mg is independent of menopausal status in women with obesity, drawing on a post-hoc analysis of the STEP-UP study.

A Quarter of Contradictions

The Istanbul congress follows a first-quarter earnings report that left analysts parsing mixed signals. On the surface, the numbers looked strong: revenue of 2.26 billion Danish kroner from the Wegovy pill alone, comfortably ahead of consensus estimates. But strip out a one-time reversal of provisions tied to the US 340B drug pricing program, and underlying sales actually contracted 4% on a constant-currency basis, squeezed by lower realized prices.

The adjusted gross margin told a similar story, slipping from 83.5% to 80.6% as pricing pressure in the US diabetes business continues to bite. Novo raised the lower end of its full-year guidance — adjusted revenue and operating profit are now expected to fall between minus 4% and minus 12% in constant currencies, versus the previous range of minus 5% to minus 13% — but Jefferies was unimpressed, arguing the adjustment was too timid to move consensus estimates meaningfully.

The analyst community remains cautious. J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and the majority of their peers currently rate the stock a “hold.”

The Stock’s Two-Way Bet

The shares have been on a rollercoaster. After losing roughly 33% over the past 12 months, Novo Nordisk has staged a sharp recovery, climbing 21.5% in the last 30 days to close at €39.02 on Friday. That bounce from the March low of €30.48 has been fueled by the Wegovy pill’s commercial momentum and a fresh strategic partnership with OpenAI, announced in April, to integrate artificial intelligence into manufacturing, supply chain and research.

A share buyback program is also providing technical support. The first tranche of 3.8 billion kroner has been completed, and the next phase is expected shortly.

But the real catalyst — or risk — lies in Istanbul. The CagriSema data, in particular, will determine whether Novo can rewrite its pipeline narrative after the early setback. If the combination therapy shows meaningful advantages in muscle preservation or functional outcomes, it could open a new chapter. If not, the stock’s recent gains may prove fragile.

What Comes Next

European approval for the oral Wegovy pill is expected before year-end, with initial launches outside the US penciled in for the second half of 2026. The company’s next set of half-year results is due on August 5.

For now, all eyes are on the Bosphorus. With 52 abstracts, four days and a stock that has already priced in a recovery, Novo Nordisk needs the science to deliver what the market is hoping for.