Novo Nordisk Strikes Back on Multiple Fronts as Obesity Data and Market Access Converge

Despite record prescriptions, positive clinical data for oral Wegovy, and a landmark Medicare deal, Novo Nordisk stock has fallen 35% over the past year.

Novo Nordisk is firing on all cylinders with a barrage of clinical data, record-breaking US prescriptions, and a landmark Medicare deal — yet the market remains unimpressed. The Danish drugmaker’s stock has shed roughly 35% over the past year, even as its obesity franchise Wegovy delivers fresh evidence of efficacy, safety, and patient preference that could reshape the competitive landscape against Eli Lilly.

The most compelling numbers came out of the ECO2026 congress in Istanbul, where Novo unveiled detailed analyses of its oral Wegovy pill. In the phase 3 OASIS 4 trial, nearly a third of patients on a 25 mg dose of oral semaglutide lost at least 10% of their body weight by week 16. Early responders shed an average of 13.2% after four months, climbing to 21.6% by week 64. Even those who did not respond quickly still achieved double-digit weight loss by the end of the study. Beyond the scale, 77.3% of patients reported clinically meaningful improvements in physical function, versus 42.9% on placebo.

An indirect comparison — dubbed ORION — pitted the Wegovy pill against Eli Lilly’s Orforglipron and found that the Lilly candidate carried a roughly 14-times higher risk of discontinuation due to gastrointestinal side effects. In a separate patient preference survey (OPTIC), 84% of participants said they would choose a profile matching the Wegovy pill. Novo also presented high-dose injection data from the STEP-UP trial: patients on 7.2 mg semaglutide who achieved at least 15% weight loss by week 24 — about one in four — went on to lose an average of 27.7% at 72 weeks. Across all subjects, the high dose delivered 20.7% weight loss versus 17.5% for the lower dose, narrowing the gap with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.

The company is simultaneously targeting women’s health with post-hoc analyses from the SELECT study. Perimenopausal women saw a 42% reduction in cardiovascular events such as heart attacks and strokes, while postmenopausal women recorded a 13% decline. Average weight loss among premenopausal women reached nearly 23%. Real-world data also pointed to sharp drops in migraine and depression cases among patients using Wegovy.

Demand for the oral pill has been explosive since its US launch in January, with more than two million prescriptions written. Even the April market entry of Eli Lilly’s Foundayo failed to dent Novo’s momentum: Wegovy still commands 65% of new US prescriptions. Management responded by raising full-year guidance for both revenue and operating profit. Looking ahead, a Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program will open Wegovy to eligible patients from July 1, 2026, at a copay of $50 per month, running through the end of 2027. Novo and Lilly have agreed on a net price of $245 per month. CEO Mike Doustdar sees potential for up to 15 million new patients, though he cautioned against expecting an overnight surge.

Beyond obesity, Novo is pushing into rare diseases. Phase 3 data for Denecimig, a hemophilia A candidate, showed a 43% reduction in bleeding events with monthly dosing compared to standard preventive therapies. The EMA is currently reviewing the oral Wegovy pill for obesity, and European launches outside the US are slated for the second half of the year.

Despite the operational strength, the stock remains under pressure. Shares closed at €38.51 on Friday, down 1.95%, but have gained 11.57% over the past 30 days. Citigroup recently lifted its price target to 290 Danish kroner but kept a Neutral rating, citing ongoing price erosion in the diabetes portfolio. For now, the market is waiting to see whether data, access, and market share can finally translate into a sustained share price recovery.