Novo Nordisk Streamlines Metabolism Focus as Menopause Data and Analyst Upgrade Signal Turnaround

Novo Nordisk sheds last cell therapy asset to focus on metabolic diseases, as Hedgeye predicts 52-117% upside and new data show semaglutide cuts heart risks and boosts weight loss.

Novo Nordisk has cleared its decks of the last remaining cell therapy asset, sharpening its focus on metabolic diseases just as a fresh wave of clinical evidence and a bullish analyst call strengthen the case for its blockbuster obesity drug. The Danish pharmaceutical giant transferred its Parkinson’s cell therapy programme, STEM-PD, to the AI-driven biotech Cellular Intelligence on 12 May, receiving equity and potential milestone payments in exchange. The exit, first flagged in late 2025, marks the formal end of Novo Nordisk’s foray into cell therapy and leaves the company entirely dedicated to metabolic and cardiovascular indications.

That strategic clarity arrives alongside a new analyst endorsement. Research house Hedgeye initiated coverage on 13 May with an upside projection of 52% to 117% for the stock, anchored by surging demand for oral weight-loss medicines in the United States. The firm expects monthly prescriptions of oral semaglutide to hit 3.6 million by the end of 2026 and forecasts earnings per share of $5.06 — well above the consensus estimate of $3.55. With the shares trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 13.6, against an industry average of 16.8, Hedgeye sees a valuation gap that should close as the market revises its expectations.

The clinical case for that re-rating was reinforced at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul, where Novo Nordisk presented data from multiple studies. One analysis of the SELECT trial showed that perimenopausal women with severe obesity and existing heart disease experienced a 42% reduction in the risk of heart attack and stroke when taking semaglutide. For post-menopausal women, the risk fell by a more modest 13%. Additional findings revealed that the drug lowered the risk of migraine by up to 45% compared with standard hormone therapy and cut the likelihood of depression by a quarter.

Other data from the STEP UP study addressed a common concern around rapid weight loss — the loss of muscle mass. Magnetic resonance imaging scans showed that 84% of the weight lost was fat, and while muscle mass declined slightly, muscle quality improved. Patients retained their functional strength throughout the treatment period. Meanwhile, results from the OASIS 4 and STEP UP trials indicated that 27% of patients on the 7.2 milligram high dose of Wegovy lost at least 15% of their body weight within 24 weeks, and early responders to the oral semaglutide pill posted an average weight reduction of 21.6% over 64 weeks. More than two million patients are already using the oral version, and identifying those early responders early could refine treatment protocols further.

Investors have already begun to reward the shift in narrative. Novo Nordisk’s stock closed at €40.17 yesterday, having rallied roughly 20% over the past 30 days from a March low of €30.48. The shares now trade about 18% above their 50-day moving average, though they remain down roughly 30% year to date. From a technical perspective, a sustained daily close above $47 would act as a buy signal, with the next target near $54, according to Hedgeye.

A further catalyst came from the United Kingdom, where regulators have approved a higher dose of Wegovy. Other major markets are currently reviewing a similar expansion. In the near term, the weekly U.S. prescription figures for oral semaglutide will serve as a key barometer — the data arrive every Friday and are widely viewed as the earliest read on whether consensus estimates are heading higher. With the Parkinson programme now off the books and a growing body of evidence supporting Wegovy’s broader medical utility, Novo Nordisk appears to have assembled a compelling growth story that stretches well beyond mere weight loss.