Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Pill Revenue Doubles Forecasts, Fuelling Optimism Amid Mixed Signals

Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy sales nearly double consensus to 2.26B DKK; stock rebounds 26% from low. Amazon expands Ozempic delivery, but price cuts in India highlight margin pressure. CagriSema decision due Q4 2026.

Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy surpassed analyst expectations by a wide margin in its first full quarter on the US market, with sales reaching 2.26 billion Danish kroner — nearly double the consensus estimate of 1.16 billion. The strong launch has helped the stock claw back about 26 percent from its March low, though the shares still trade 35 percent below where they stood a year ago and remain 45 percent off their 52-week peak.

The depth of the pill’s adoption is evident in prescription data. Weekly scripts topped 200,000 in the week ending April 17, and cumulative prescriptions have exceeded two million since launch — making it the strongest GLP-1 debut in US history. Novo expects European approval before year-end and plans international rollouts from the second half of 2026.

Even as the oral formulation gains traction, Amazon Pharmacy is broadening access to Novo’s Ozempic tablet, the diabetes counterpart to Wegovy. The e-commerce giant’s same-day delivery service now covers nearly 3,000 US cities for the drug, with plans to expand to roughly 4,500 by the end of next year. The move reduces Novo’s reliance on traditional pharmacy channels and complements existing access partnerships with Weight Watchers and GoodRx. At the market close on Friday, Novo Nordisk shares stood at €38.56, having lost 1.82 percent on the day but gained 11.72 percent over the past month.

Yet the distribution wins coexist with growing margin pressure. India has become an early proving ground for the post-patent landscape. After the March 2026 expiry of Semaglutid’s patent, more than a dozen local manufacturers — including Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla, and Zydus Lifesciences — launched their own versions. Novo responded by slashing Ozempic prices by 38 percent and Wegovy prices by 48 percent in the country. Sales of its diabetes and obesity drugs there still rose 40 percent in April, but the price cuts signal the strategic tension between volume growth and profitability that awaits in other emerging markets.

The pipeline remains the next major catalyst. Novo’s fixed-dose combination CagriSema — pairing cagrilintide and semaglutide — was submitted to the FDA in December 2025, with a decision expected by the fourth quarter of 2026. Clinical data showed a 22.7 percent average weight loss over 68 weeks versus 2.3 percent on placebo, and more than 40 percent of participants shed at least a quarter of their body weight. However, an early 2026 head-to-head trial against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound ended in defeat, raising questions about whether CagriSema’s absolute efficacy will be sufficient to compete. A phase 3 high-dose study is slated for the second half of the year.

Less visible but strategically important is Novo’s rare-disease portfolio. In April, the company reported positive phase 3 results for Etavopivat in sickle cell disease, hitting both co-primary endpoints — fewer pain crises and better hemoglobin levels versus placebo. The FDA has granted the drug fast track, orphan drug, and rare pediatric disease designations. Novo plans to file for approval in the second half of 2026.

Analyst sentiment remains divided. Citi lifted its price target to 290 Danish kroner but stuck with a “Neutral” rating. SB1 Markets is more bullish at 350 kroner, while TD Cowen rates the stock “Hold” with a $42 target. The next key event comes on June 7, when Novo holds an R&D investor day at the ADA conference, where management is expected to outline pipeline priorities and financial targets. Half-year results follow on August 5, offering the clearest read yet on whether the oral Wegovy momentum can offset the headwinds from generics and competitive pressure. Novo has slightly improved its 2026 guidance but still expects lower sales and operating profit at constant exchange rates.