Novo Nordisk’s Teen Pill Push and Buyback Blitz Come as Oral Wegovy Leaves Lilly in the Dust

Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy dominates with 600K+ scripts, while Eli Lilly's Foundayo lags. Medicare tailwind and pipeline wins add momentum.

The Danish drugmaker is juggling a lot at once: a stock that has been cut in half from its peak, a share buyback program nearing the 13.4 million mark, and a pipeline that just cleared two major clinical hurdles. But the clearest signal of momentum right now comes from the pharmacy counter, where Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill is running laps around Eli Lilly’s newly launched Foundayo.

Foundayo’s Slow Start Puts the Gap in Sharp Relief

IQVIA prescription data for the week ending April 17 shows Foundayo generated roughly 3,700 scripts in the U.S. — a figure that fell well short of the roughly 8,000 Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin had penciled in to keep pace with the Wegovy pill’s launch trajectory. The contrast is stark: Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy, approved by the FDA in December 2025 and launched in January 2026, racked up more than 18,000 prescriptions in its second week alone. Foundayo managed less than a fifth of that in the same post-launch window.

The Wegovy pill has now accumulated over 600,000 prescriptions in total. Crucially, the product appears to be expanding the addressable market rather than simply cannibalizing injections. Up to 25% of U.S. adults suffer from needle phobia, a cohort that had previously avoided injectable GLP-1s entirely.

GlobalData projects Wegovy portfolio revenue of $13.5 billion for 2026, climbing to $18.9 billion by 2031. The oral pill alone is expected to contribute $2.76 billion by then.

A Medicare Tailwind on the Horizon

Starting July 1, 2026, a temporary CMS program will allow certain Medicare beneficiaries to access GLP-1 medications — including all formulations of Wegovy and Foundayo — through the end of 2027. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have accepted lower pricing in exchange for inclusion. Patient co-pays could land around $50 per month. The program opens a structurally new demand channel and should provide a tangible lift to both companies starting in the second half of the year.

Teen Approval and Sickle Cell Data Add Pipeline Depth

Beyond the commercial story, Novo Nordisk is building a regulatory pipeline. The company plans to file formal approval applications with the FDA and EMA in the second half of 2026 for oral semaglutide in adolescents aged 10 to 17 with type 2 diabetes. The Phase 3 PIONEER TEENS study hit its primary endpoint, showing a statistically significant reduction in HbA1c versus placebo. Treatment options for this age group are currently limited, with metformin and insulin dominating the landscape.

Separately, Novo Nordisk presented data on etavopivat, its sickle cell disease candidate. The Phase 3 HIBISCUS trial met both co-primary endpoints, reducing vaso-occlusive crises and improving hemoglobin response. Etavopivat is the first drug in its class to clear these clinical bars, strengthening the company’s footprint beyond diabetes and obesity.

Stock Buyback Accelerates as Shares Remain Deeply Discounted

Novo Nordisk’s B-shares trade at roughly €34.84, some 50% below the 52-week high of €70.13. The stock has recovered about 14% from its late-March trough, but remains more than 37% below where it stood 12 months ago. The relative strength index sits at 25.7, a level that technical analysts consider oversold. The consensus analyst rating is “Hold,” with an average price target of $65.56.

The company has been buying back its own equity aggressively. Since February 4, 2026, Novo Nordisk has repurchased approximately 13.4 million B-shares at an average price of 256.48 Danish kroner, for a total transaction value of roughly 3.4 billion kroner. The overall program is authorized for up to 15 billion kroner over 12 months.

The First Real Test Arrives May 6

Novo Nordisk reports first-quarter 2026 results on May 6. It will be the first quarterly report to capture a full period of Wegovy pill revenue — and the first genuine stress test of whether the prescription records translate into the profit-and-loss statement. The company has also authorized a high-dose version of Wegovy for greater weight reduction and launched a collaboration with OpenAI to accelerate drug development through artificial intelligence. Whether those initiatives are enough to restore market confidence will depend heavily on the regulatory filings due in the second half of the year.