Novo Nordisk’s Sickle Cell Breakthrough Can’t Stop the Bleeding in Washington

Novo Nordisk's Etavopivat meets all goals in Phase 3 sickle cell trial, but political and pricing headwinds drag stock near 52-week low despite pipeline progress.

The Danish drugmaker is finally delivering the kind of clinical data that normally sends shares soaring. Instead, Novo Nordisk’s stock is trading near its lowest levels in a year, caught in a political vise that no pipeline success can immediately loosen.

The company’s experimental sickle cell disease therapy, Etavopivat, hit every major target in a large Phase 3 trial. The HIBISCUS study, which enrolled 385 patients aged 12 and older, showed a 27% reduction in vaso-occlusive crises per year compared to placebo. Patients on the drug also went a median 38.4 weeks before their first crisis, nearly double the 20.9 weeks seen in the placebo arm. On hemoglobin response, the gap was even starker: 48.7% of treated patients saw a rise of more than 1 g/dL, versus just 7.2% in the control group. An exploratory analysis also pointed to a lower risk of blood transfusions.

Novo Nordisk acquired Etavopivat through its $1.1 billion purchase of Forma Therapeutics in 2022. The drug already carries a suite of US regulatory designations — Fast Track, Rare Pediatric Disease, and Orphan Drug — plus Orphan Drug status in Europe. A submission for approval is slated for the second half of 2026.

The timing of the win is awkward. For 2026, management expects revenue and operating profit to fall by 5% to 13% on a constant-currency basis. The drag comes from Medicare Part D price negotiations and restructuring costs of roughly 8 billion Danish kroner. Starting in early 2027, the company plans to cut prices on its key semaglutide brands in the US, further squeezing future margins.

Those headwinds have hammered the stock. Shares now trade at around €33, down roughly 25% since the start of the year and nearly 50% below the 52-week high of about €70. The relative strength index sits at 23.5, deep in oversold territory.

The political pressure is intensifying. Novo Nordisk spent $1.29 million on US lobbying in the first quarter of 2026 alone, according to a recent filing, as it fights to shape drug pricing and patent legislation. The company is also facing the early erosion of patent protections in markets like Canada and China.

Yet the pipeline is showing signs of life beyond sickle cell. On a separate track, Novo Nordisk presented data from the ORION study showing that its Wegovy pill at 25 milligrams delivered greater weight loss than Eli Lilly’s competing oral drug Orforglipron. Tolerability also favored the Danish drug, with fewer patients dropping out due to gastrointestinal side effects. The pill, launched in January, is central to the company’s effort to reclaim lost ground in the obesity market.

Internally, Novo Nordisk has been rebuilding. After last year’s layoffs, it has already hired around 2,000 new employees in 2026.

The detailed HIBISCUS results are expected to be presented at a scientific conference later this year. Beyond Etavopivat, the company plans to file for expanded indications for its Ozempic tablet and for Rybelsus in the US and Europe in the second half of 2026. Investors are also watching for updates on a new AI partnership with OpenAI.

For now, the market is waiting for quarterly results to provide clarity. The clinical wins are real, but the political debate over drug pricing in Washington remains the dominant force shaping Novo Nordisk’s near-term trajectory.