Novo Nordisk’s Pivotal Year: Can a New Pill Reverse Fortunes?

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Novo Nordisk enters 2026 carrying the weight of a punishing year for its shareholders, yet armed with a potential catalyst: the freshly approved oral version of its Wegovy drug for the U.S. market. Following a share price that was nearly cut in half over twelve months, management faces intense pressure to reignite the growth narrative in the lucrative GLP-1 sector. The central question is whether this new tablet can mark a genuine inflection point.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s late December 2025 approval of oral Wegovy provided a much-needed jolt. It is the first oral GLP-1 therapy explicitly approved for weight loss in the United States. The news triggered a single-day share price surge of almost 10%, underscoring the market's significant expectations for this product.

This tablet form grants Novo Nordisk a temporary lead over its chief rival, Eli Lilly. U.S. shipments are slated to begin in January 2026, while Lilly’s competing oral candidate, Orforglipron, lacks approval and is not anticipated until the end of March at the earliest. This window could prove critical for securing early market share in the nascent oral GLP-1 segment.

Clinical efficacy data also strengthens the case:
* Oral Wegovy demonstrated an average weight reduction of 16.6% after 64 weeks in trials.
* Orforglipron showed a 12.4% reduction after 72 weeks.

This combination of superior efficacy and a first-mover advantage bolsters Novo Nordisk's position in the crucial U.S. market.

Pricing and Policy Reshape the Landscape

The company's pricing strategy aims for broader access, with the pill expected to launch at $149 per month—significantly below the cost of injectable formulations. This move also positions Novo Nordisk to compete more directly with compounders, which gained traction with cheaper mixed versions during semaglutid supply shortages.

Furthermore, U.S. policy shifts are altering the environment. An agreement with the Trump administration to lower GLP-1 prices in government programs Medicare and Medicaid, coupled with the planned direct-to-consumer platform TrumpRx.gov, is set to durably impact U.S. pricing and distribution. For Novo Nordisk, this means greater potential patient access but also intensified margin pressure.

A Year Marked by Significant Setbacks

The context for this new launch is a challenging 2025 for the Danish pharmaceutical giant. Growth decelerated sharply, with the stock losing approximately 40% and currently trading down 47.9% year-over-year. Although the share price of €44.61 is about 10% higher than 30 days ago, it remains nearly 49% below its 52-week peak.

Multiple factors contributed to the negative sentiment and valuation compression:
* Revenue growth plummeted to just 5% in Q3 2025, down from 29% in Q3 2023.
* Competitor Eli Lilly seized the lead in U.S. GLP-1 market share as early as February 2025.
* The CEO was replaced in May 2025 citing "recent market challenges."
* All independent supervisory board members resigned in November 2025.
* Trial data for the combination therapy CagriSema disappointed many investors.

Consequently, the stock remains under pressure, trading clearly below its 200-day moving average while the shorter-term 50-day average lags behind.

Headwinds Persist into the New Year

Despite the promise of oral Wegovy, underlying issues persist. Several challenges will define 2026:
* Expiring patents in Brazil, Canada, and China will pressure revenues in those markets.
* The booming U.S. direct-to-consumer market remains fiercely competitive, particularly from low-cost compounders.
* Analysts currently see "no substantial positive progress" in U.S. operations.

New CEO Mike Doustdar's task is therefore twofold: successfully launch the new product and demonstrate tangible operational improvements in the U.S. The publication of full-year 2025 results on February 4, 2026, will serve as the first major test of his tenure, revealing the true depth of the company's recent struggles.

Pipeline Projects Offer a Second Act

Beyond oral Wegovy, the market is watching Novo Nordisk's broader development pipeline. Key focuses include:
* CagriSema: This next-generation GLP-1 combination therapy showed 22.7% weight reduction in studies. Despite recent disappointing data, investors await clearer signals on its regulatory pathway and commercialization.
* Wegovy 7.2 mg Injection: An FDA application for this higher-dose injectable was submitted in November 2025. Its efficacy could rival Eli Lilly's Zepbound (20.7% weight loss), potentially strengthening Novo Nordisk's premium injection portfolio.

Intensifying Competition and Strategic Diversification

Competition in the GLP-1 market now extends well beyond the Novo Nordisk/Eli Lilly duopoly. Heavyweights including Pfizer, Amgen, AstraZeneca, and Roche are advancing their own candidates through late-stage development, increasing medium-term innovation and pricing pressure across the segment.

Novo Nordisk is attempting to prepare by broadening its business model. The acquisition of Akero Therapeutics in December 2025 signaled this intent, aiming to expand the pipeline into liver disease alongside the core obesity focus. This reduces long-term dependence on the GLP-1 boom, even though anti-obesity drugs will continue to dominate valuation in the near term.

Conclusion: A Crucial Launch Amid Fragile Recovery

Following the 2025 sell-off, Novo Nordisk's position is precarious yet not without hope. The share price is attempting to form a base just above its 52-week low, while an RSI of 34.8 reflects weakened sentiment without yet signaling extreme oversold conditions.

Two factors will be decisive in the coming months. First is the commercial success of the oral Wegovy launch in the U.S., encompassing its reception within the competitive pricing environment. Second are the signals from the February 4, 2026 annual results, which will indicate whether 2025's downturn was the start of a prolonged weak phase or the foundation for a gradual recovery.