Novo Nordisk's Pill Strategy Gets a Double Boost – EU Nod and Analyst Upgrade – Yet the Growth Slowdown Looms

Novo Nordisk recoups losses after EU clears oral Wegovy and Citi raises price target, but stock still 30% below peak as market awaits growth signs.

Novo Nordisk shares have recouped more than 40% from their early-March low, but the stock still sits nearly 30% below the 52-week peak set last July. This gap is a visible reminder that even as the Danish drugmaker secures two fresh tailwinds – regulatory approval for its oral Wegovy pill in Europe and a price-target hike from Citi – the market is holding out for concrete signs that a much-anticipated growth trough is not turning into a deeper rut.

The European Commission cleared Wegovy's 25-milligram oral semaglutide on 15 July 2026 as the first tablet-form GLP-1 therapy for weight management across all EU member states. The green light covers patients with a BMI of 30 or above, as well as those with a BMI of 27 plus at least one weight-related comorbidity. Alongside the pill, a ready-to-use 7.2-milligram injector pen also received approval. The decision, the fifth regulatory nod after the US, UK, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, was underpinned by the OASIS-4 trial, which showed an average weight loss of 17% versus 3% on placebo, with roughly one in three participants shedding at least 20%. Novo Nordisk plans to launch the oral formulation across additional European countries in the second half of 2026.

Citi responded to the approval and the broader adoption trends by lifting its price target on the stock to 330 Danish kroner, raising the valuation multiple to 16 times estimated 2027 earnings from 15. The bank also bumped up its 2026 revenue and operating profit forecasts by 4–5%, and its per-share earnings estimates for 2027 through 2030 by about 7%, while maintaining a neutral rating. For the second-quarter results due on 5 August, Citi projects operating profit of 27.2 billion kroner, down 9% on a currency-adjusted basis, and revenue of 72.7 billion kroner, a 1% drop – both figures stripped of the US 340B drug-pricing adjustment. The oral Wegovy pill alone is expected to generate roughly 4 billion kroner (about $630 million) in quarterly sales. The central question, from Citi's perspective, is whether Novo Nordisk will raise its full-year guidance given the robust prescription trends, even as Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 competitor Foundayo (orforglipron) enters the fray.

The bull case draws heavily on the pill's performance in the US, where it now accounts for approximately 89% of all new GLP-1 prescriptions, with more than 153,050 fresh scripts written each week. Crucially, over 80% of those prescriptions come from patients who had never used a GLP-1 drug before, suggesting the tablet is expanding the market rather than cannibalising injectable Wegovy. Should Europe replicate that pattern, Novo Nordisk would gain a fresh growth stream without undermining its established injection business. Additional pipeline catalysts include denecimig, a haemophilia A candidate that delivered positive long-term safety and efficacy data at the ISTH congress on 11 July, with an FDA decision expected in the third quarter. Amycretin, a next-generation obesity therapy, advanced both its injectable and oral formulations into phase 3 in the first quarter of 2026. The company is also supporting its stock through a buyback programme that runs to February 2027, having committed up to 11.2 billion Danish kroner for B-share repurchases since 6 May.

Yet the headwinds are material. Eli Lilly's Foundayo received FDA approval in April 2026, ending Novo Nordisk's early monopoly on oral GLP-1 weight-loss drugs in the US. Around 20% of patients continue to use unapproved compounded GLP-1 alternatives, despite regulatory efforts to curb the practice. Novo Nordisk's CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged in January that 2026 would bring headwinds in international markets, with increased competition and the loss of market exclusivity in several countries weighing on near-term results. Analysts view the current year as the "trough" in the company's growth cycle, with price adjustments and structural rivalry likely to compress margins even if they improve long-term market access.

The broader market for obesity drugs is expanding rapidly, providing a tailwind for all players. Valued at $4.21 billion in 2025, the GLP-1 segment is expected to grow 41.8% to $5.96 billion this year and reach $23.59 billion by 2030. Rising obesity rates and competition from Eli Lilly, Pfizer and Roche are simultaneously fuelling demand and squeezing individual market shares.

The stock closed Monday at €43.48, up 8.33% over the past 30 days and well above its 50-day moving average of €40.11. But the 29% gap to the July 2025 peak of €60.95 shows that much of the risk – from Lilly's launch, pricing pressure, and the 2026 trough – is already discounted. The 5 August earnings release will be the first real test of whether the oral pill's European rollout can turn that discount into a recovery, or whether the mechanical drag of competition and currency headwinds keeps the shares pinned until the growth cycle finally turns up again.