Novo Nordisk’s Oral Weight-Loss Drug Sparks Investor Optimism

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Shares of Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk have staged a significant recovery in recent weeks, climbing nearly 19% over a one-month period. This resurgence is largely attributed to the successful U.S. launch of an oral tablet version of its blockbuster weight-loss drug, Wegovy. Following a challenging 2025, the company appears to be regaining ground in its intense rivalry with Eli Lilly for dominance in the lucrative obesity medication market.

Despite the positive momentum from the U.S. launch, Novo Nordisk's CEO, Mike Doustdar, offered a tempered perspective during the recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. He highlighted emerging international headwinds, noting that patent protection is expiring in several countries, allowing competitors like Eli Lilly to expand their presence. Furthermore, in the United States alone, approximately 1.5 million individuals are reportedly using cheaper, non-approved copycat versions of GLP-1 agonist drugs.

The company's current valuation reflects some of these challenges, with shares trading at a forward P/E ratio of around 17. This figure sits notably below its five-year average of 29.25 and is also lower than the current industry average. Investors are awaiting the firm's fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for release on February 4, 2026.

Impressive Early Demand for Oral Wegovy

The commercial debut of the oral Wegovy tablet in the United States has demonstrated substantial early demand, with roughly 18,000 prescriptions written in its first week of availability. This strong start underscores the market's interest in the first approved GLP-1 pill for weight management. In clinical trials, the oral formulation achieved an average weight reduction of 16.6% over 64 weeks—a result comparable to its injectable counterpart but offering significantly greater convenience for patients.

Novo Nordisk has structured its pricing strategy to enhance accessibility:

• Self-pay patients can access the introductory 1.5 mg dose for $149 per month.
• The 4 mg dose is priced at $149 until mid-April 2026, after which it will increase to $199.
• The highest dosage strengths are set at $299 monthly.
• For insured patients, the cost can be as low as $25 per month through the company's savings program.

The Road Ahead in a Booming Market

The global GLP-1 drug market is projected to approach $100 billion by 2030, setting the stage for continued fierce competition. Eli Lilly has already posted combined sales of $24.8 billion for its rival products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, in just the first nine months of 2025.

Novo Nordisk is betting on its development pipeline to maintain its competitive edge. Its next-generation therapy, CagriSema, is currently under regulatory review. Additionally, a higher-dose injectable version of Wegovy, which demonstrated up to 20.7% weight loss in studies, is nearing an FDA decision. A critical moment will arrive in the second quarter of 2026, when the FDA is expected to rule on Eli Lilly's oral competitor, Orforglipron—a decision that could redefine the competitive dynamics of the entire sector.