Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Sales Surprise Caps Strong Data Showing at Istanbul Obesity Congress

Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy rakes in 2.26B kroner in first quarter, nearly double consensus; high-dose injectable shows 27.7% average weight loss at 72 weeks, narrowing gap with Eli Lilly.

The outcome was far from guaranteed. When Novo Nordisk launched the pill version of Wegovy in the US late last year, many analysts expected a slow ramp — insurance hurdles and patient inertia typically stall oral obesity treatments. But the numbers that landed this week tell a different story. The oral formulation raked in 2.26 billion Danish kroner in its first full quarter on the market, nearly double what consensus had forecast. All three major US pharmacy benefit managers have already added the pill to their standard formularies, placing it on equal footing with the injectable.

That commercial momentum provided a powerful counterpoint to the flurry of clinical data Novo Nordisk has been presenting at the European Congress on Obesity (ECO) in Istanbul. The company unveiled 52 abstracts, with the spotlight falling squarely on the higher-dose injectable Wegovy (7.2 mg semaglutide). Among patients who had shed at least 15% of their body weight after 24 weeks, the average total loss reached 27.7% by week 72. For the overall study population, the figure stood at roughly 21% — a clear step up from the 17% achieved with the standard 2.4 mg dose. A separate analysis confirmed that the weight loss came predominantly from fat, with muscle mass largely preserved.

The data also gave Novo Nordisk ammunition in its escalating rivalry with Eli Lilly. In the STEP UP trial, premenopausal women taking the high-dose Wegovy lost an average of 22.6% of their body weight, and 41.4% achieved at least a 25% reduction. These numbers narrow the gap to Lilly’s Mounjaro, which showed 20.2% weight loss in an earlier head-to-head against standard-dose Wegovy. But the real battlefield is the US prescription market, where Novo Nordisk still holds roughly 55% of weekly injectable GLP-1 volumes and 65% of new obesity prescriptions. Weekly Wegovy scripts reached 116,000 in April, versus 62,000 for tirzepatide products.

The oral pill’s strong start has drawn analyst upgrades. Citi raised its price target to 290 Danish kroner but kept a neutral rating, projecting oral Wegovy sales of $2.7 billion for 2026 — well above the $1.7 billion market consensus. SB1 Markets is more bullish, lifting its target to 350 kroner with a buy recommendation. The stock has climbed roughly 31% from its March trough, closing at €40.05 on Tuesday. Still, year-to-date the shares remain down 10.35%, a reminder that the recovery is fragile.

Away from the obesity narrative, Novo Nordisk is trimming its exposure to cell therapy. The company has licensed global rights to a Parkinson’s programme based on dopaminergic precursor cells to Cellular Intelligence, a biotech that has raised over $60 million. Novo Nordisk will take an equity stake and is eligible for milestone payments and royalties. The deal completes a retreat that began last autumn, when Novo Nordisk shut down its internal cell therapy work and laid off nearly all 250 employees in the unit. Cellular Intelligence plans to start a phase 2 trial by year-end.

The Istanbul data blitz also included early-stage findings on CagriSema, the combination therapy that suffered a setback earlier this year when it underperformed against Lilly’s Zepbound in a direct comparison. The REDEFINE-1 programme presented data on body composition, muscle strength and cardiovascular risk, keeping the candidate alive pending an FDA decision expected in 2026. And real-world analyses showed that women on Wegovy experienced a 42–45% lower migraine risk and a 25% lower risk of depression compared with menopausal hormone therapy alone — signals that require further validation but add to the drug’s appeal.

The immediate test for the higher-dose Wegovy is whether clinical superiority translates into prescription growth. The oral pill has already proven it can exceed analyst expectations, and European approval is anticipated before year-end, with ex-US launches likely in the second half of 2026. A direct data comparison between oral semaglutide and Lilly’s orforglipron is scheduled for Friday, the final day of the congress, potentially sharpening the competitive picture further. Novo Nordisk’s half-year results are due on 5 August, which will offer the next hard check on whether the stock’s recent rebound has legs.