Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Pill Leaves Eli Lilly in the Dust as Pipeline Battles Loom

Novo Nordisk shares jump 6.4% as oral Wegovy prescriptions dwarf Eli Lilly's rival, while pivotal CagriSema trial data and US lobbying shift shape 2026 outlook.

The numbers tell a stark story of market dominance. In the second week of sales, Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill racked up 18,410 prescriptions against just 3,707 for Eli Lilly’s rival product Foundayo. The Danish drugmaker is steamrolling its US competitor in the early race for oral GLP-1 treatments, and investors took notice.

Shares jumped 6.41 percent on Friday to EUR 35.09, offering a rare moment of relief for a stock that has been pummelled this year. The rally was fueled by the IQVIA prescription data cited by analysts, alongside a broader reassessment of the company’s clinical pipeline. On a monthly basis, the stock has now gained nearly 11 percent, hinting at a potential bottom after a brutal selloff.

But the long-term chart remains ugly. Novo Nordisk has shed more than 20 percent of its value since January, and the share price sits well below its 200-day moving average. The all-time high of over EUR 70 from last summer feels like a distant memory. A relative strength index reading below 18 had flagged the stock as deeply oversold before Friday’s bounce.

Clinical Data Points to a Pivotal Year Ahead

Beyond the prescription data, the company’s pipeline is generating significant attention. Novo Nordisk has completed a crucial Phase 3 trial comparing its combination therapy CagriSema directly with Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide. The study data have been locked and are now awaiting detailed analysis. Positive results could reinforce the long-term growth narrative, while a miss would hand a major advantage to the US rival.

Earlier trial results were mixed. In a previous study, patients on CagriSema achieved slightly less weight loss than those on Tirzepatide, leaving the outcome of this head-to-head contest uncertain. A decision from the US Food and Drug Administration on CagriSema for weight management is expected by late 2026.

The company is also making progress beyond metabolic diseases. A Phase 3 trial of Etavopivat for sickle cell disease hit all primary endpoints, reducing the rate of vaso-occlusive crises by 27 percent and improving hemoglobin levels in nearly half of treated patients. The market for this rare disease is wide open after Pfizer pulled its own drug two years ago due to safety concerns. Novo Nordisk plans to file for regulatory approval in the second half of 2026.

A Washington Shuffle and a Payer Puzzle

On the political front, Novo Nordisk is recalibrating its US strategy. The company has ended its relationship with a long-standing lobbying firm and hired the S-3 Group LLC to focus on health policy. The goal remains unchanged: persuading Medicare and Medicaid to cover obesity drugs like Wegovy.

The stakes are high. The US government plans to launch the BALANCE model in July 2026, which would provide limited access to GLP-1 drugs for Medicare recipients. But the program is temporary and does not offer a permanent legislative fix. Novo Nordisk’s new lobbying team will need to navigate a complex political landscape to secure broader coverage.

What’s Next for Investors

The next major catalyst arrives on May 7, when Novo Nordisk reports first-quarter earnings. Management has guided for a currency-adjusted decline in 2025 sales, but the strong early prescription data for the oral Wegovy pill could force an upward revision. Investors will also be watching for updated details on the CagriSema versus Tirzepatide trial, which represents the next concrete trigger for the stock.

With regulatory filings for both Etavopivat and a pediatric oral GLP-1 therapy slated for the second half of 2026, Novo Nordisk is building a pipeline that extends well beyond its blockbuster injectables. But the stock’s recovery hinges on whether the company can translate clinical wins and prescription dominance into sustained earnings growth — and whether Washington will finally open the door to broader obesity drug coverage.