Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Pill Defies Expectations as Data Blitz Reshapes Obesity Market Battle

Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy pill nearly doubled sales forecasts, with Istanbul congress data showing early responders achieve 21.6% weight loss, bolstering its oral obesity narrative.

The Istanbul obesity congress has become a stage for Novo Nordisk’s dual narrative — commercial momentum meeting clinical firepower. The Danish drugmaker’s oral Wegovy pill has shattered analyst forecasts in its first full quarter of US sales, while a barrage of new data strengthens its argument against both rival therapies and the perception that the weight-loss market belongs solely to injectables.

Oral Pill Sales Double Views, Surpassing $2 Billion DKK Run-Rate

The oral version of Wegovy generated approximately 2.26 billion Danish kroner in its first full quarter on the US market — nearly twice what analysts had penciled in. All three major US pharmacy benefit managers have now added the pill to their standard formularies at parity with the injectable version, giving it immediate access to the vast majority of insured patients. Citi responded by hiking its price target to 290 Danish kroner, though it maintained a neutral stance. SB1 Markets went further, lifting its target to 350 kroner while keeping a buy recommendation. The bank’s sales estimate of 2.7 billion US dollars for the pill in 2026 stands well above the consensus of 1.7 billion.

Early Responder Data Strengthens the Oral Thesis

Crucially, Novo Nordisk’s clinical presentation at the European Obesity Congress (ECO) offered fresh granularity on the pill’s efficacy. In the phase III OASIS 4 study, 28.8% of patients achieved a weight loss of at least 10% by week 16 — labelled early responders. This subset went on to lose an average of 21.6% over the full 64-week trial, compared with 11.5% for those who did not hit that early threshold. The overall average reduction in the study was 17%, versus 2.7% in the placebo arm. The data gives doctors a prognostic tool and strengthens the argument that the pill’s pharmacokinetics can reliably provoke decisive weight loss.

Separately, Novo presented results from the high-dose injectable formulation of Wegovy — 7.2 milligrams of semaglutide, three times the standard dose. In a 72-week analysis, patients who lost at least 15% of body weight by week 24 — early responders in this cohort — achieved an average reduction of 27.7%. Across all participants, the figure was roughly 21%, well above the 17% seen with the 2.4 mg dose. The company also highlighted that weight loss came predominantly from fat, with muscle mass largely preserved — a point that resonates with both regulators and clinicians.

Patient Preference and Competitive Positioning

Novo Nordisk used Istanbul to press its advantage in head-to-head perception. The OPTIC study found that 84% of respondents favoured the Wegovy pill’s profile over Orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist being developed by Eli Lilly. An indirect analysis called ORION suggested stronger weight loss with the Wegovy pill and a lower probability of discontinuation due to side effects. This matters because the market is no longer decided by raw efficacy alone; tolerability, ease of use and reimbursement are becoming decisive battlegrounds.

Lang-scheduled clash: on Friday, the final day of the congress, Novo is due to present a direct comparison of oral semaglutide with Lilly’s Orforglipron — a session that could shift analyst sentiment on future market shares. Lilly has already countered with Foundayo, its own oral pill launched in April, but Wegovy’s injectable still commands roughly 65% of new US prescriptions for obesity medications.

CagriSema: Setback, Then Recovery in Focus

The combination therapy CagriSema suffered a bruising blow earlier this year when it underperformed against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in a direct head-to-head. In Istanbul, Novo presented new data from the REDEFINE-1 programme on body composition, muscle strength and cardiovascular risk — seeking to rebuild confidence. A separate study, REIMAGINE-2, showed that CagriSema reduced HbA1c by 1.91 percentage points and delivered a 14.2% weight loss after 68 weeks. The US Food and Drug Administration is reviewing a marketing application, with a decision expected in 2026. European regulatory verdicts on CagriSema are anticipated towards the end of this year.

Stock Rebounds, But Lingering Doubts Remain

The share price has climbed roughly 31% from its March low, buoyed by the oral pill’s sales surprise and the steady drumbeat of positive data. At around €40.60, the stock has gained 26.12% over the past 30 days, yet it remains 30.68% below its level twelve months ago. The market is pricing in a recovery, but not yet a full return to the premium valuation Novo enjoyed before the GLP-1 competition intensified.

Market Access and Production Scale-Up

The US market is set to expand further: the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge programme will begin on July 1, 2026, broadening access for patients covered by the federal insurance plan. On the production side, Novo plans to invest roughly US$6.8 billion in 2026 to expand manufacturing capacity. European approval of the Wegovy pill is still expected before year-end, with first commercial launches outside the US scheduled for the second half of 2026. The half-year results are due on August 5, and will give the next concrete look at whether the oral momentum can be sustained. If capacity, data and reimbursement converge as planned, the pill could become the decisive lever in Novo Nordisk’s competitive arsenal.