Novo Nordisk’s New Orleans Moment: Can CagriSema Data Reverse a 44% Slide?

Novo Nordisk's 44% stock slide faces pivotal ADA test: Phase 3 CagriSema data for diabetes/obesity could restore confidence or deepen discount amid Lilly rivalry.

Novo Nordisk’s shares have shed roughly 44% from their 52-week high, landing at €39.23, and the recovery from a spring trough near €30 remains fragile. The next big test lands in New Orleans next week, where the Danish drugmaker will lay out the clinical evidence that could either silence the sceptics or deepen the valuation discount.

From 5 to 8 June, the American Diabetes Association’s Scientific Sessions will host 40 Novo Nordisk abstracts covering its diabetes and obesity pipeline. The headline act is the Phase 3 REIMAGINE programme for CagriSema — a fixed-dose combination of the GLP-1 receptor agonist semaglutide and the long-acting amylin analogue cagrilintide — in patients with type 2 diabetes. Investors will scrutinise both glycaemic control and weight reduction endpoints to judge whether the combo can outperform existing monotherapies.

Alongside CagriSema, the company will unveil Phase 2 data for Zenagamtide, an experimental once-weekly GLP-1/amylin-based agent designed to stretch the portfolio beyond the blockbuster semaglutide franchise. Updated cardiometabolic profiles for Ozempic and Wegovy round out the presentation slate.

The conference comes against a backdrop of intense competitive pressure. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro has drawn more favourable assessments from some portfolio managers — Sean Carroll of Janus Henderson recently expressed greater optimism for Lilly’s drug than for Ozempic. That sentiment matters because the GLP-1 market, already worth an estimated $50bn in annual sales, is projected to quadruple to $200bn during the 2030s. Novo Nordisk’s ability to capture that growth depends on convincing markets its pipeline is not just viable but superior.

A shift to oral formulations could expand the addressable market considerably. A Bank of America survey found that six in ten physicians would prescribe more weight-loss medications if they were available as pills. Novo Nordisk began rolling out oral Wegovy early this year, but Lilly’s oral product Foundayo secured placement on key US formularies on 1 June, narrowing Novo’s first-mover advantage.

Novo’s first-quarter results underscore the headwinds. Adjusted net sales came in at roughly 70bn Danish kroner, with operating profit of nearly 33bn kroner. Full-year guidance calls for a revenue and operating profit decline of 4% to 12% at constant exchange rates, driven by lower realised US prices. Domestic sales fell 11% in the quarter, even as international markets climbed 6%. The company’s gross margin remains above 80%, offering some cushion.

The stock trades at about DKK 293 (roughly $45.57), translating to a price-to-earnings multiple of around 11 and a dividend yield of 3.84%. Analysts at William Blair and other houses view the ADA readout as a potential pivot point for confidence in Novo’s competitive standing.

A dedicated R&D investor event is scheduled for 7 June, where management is expected to detail the clinical results and lay out the regulatory pathway for CagriSema. The FDA’s decision is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026.

For now, the market is weighing pipeline breadth, oral delivery options, cardiometabolic data breadth, and US pricing pressure as a combined signal. The New Orleans data will not be judged in isolation — it will be read as a verdict on whether Novo Nordisk still commands the structural winner’s position in the obesity wave or whether that mantle has already shifted.