Novo Nordisk’s MASH Data Strengthens Semaglutide’s Case as Buyback and Earnings Add Context

Novo Nordisk presents Phase 3 ESSENCE subgroup data for semaglutide in MASH, showing efficacy across underrepresented groups. Revenue grows 32% but stock remains under pressure amid lowered 2026 outlook.

Novo Nordisk is using the EASL Congress in Barcelona to build a broader medical case for semaglutide, presenting fresh evidence that the GLP-1 therapy can address metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) — a silent liver disease affecting an estimated 250 million people worldwide, nine out of ten of whom remain undiagnosed. The Danish drugmaker’s push into this untapped treatment area comes as its shares wrestle with a steep downturn and a lowered 2026 outlook, yet the company is simultaneously deploying a hefty share buyback and reporting first-quarter revenue growth that underscores the resilience of its existing business.

The new data hail from the Phase 3 ESSENCE program, which already showed that a 2.4 mg dose of semaglutide significantly reduces liver inflammation and fibrosis in MASH patients. On the congress floor, Novo Nordisk is now laying out subgroup analyses that extend the evidence into three populations often underrepresented in liver research: patients with impaired liver function, menopausal women, and Japanese individuals. For postmenopausal women, the findings are particularly relevant because hormonal shifts can accelerate metabolic deterioration and worsen liver disease. The Japanese subgroup matters because MASH often strikes Asian patients at lower body weights and involves distinct genetic risk factors. The safety analysis from ESSENCE confirms a favourable profile across all these groups, a critical point given that MASH sufferers frequently have multiple comorbidities.

While the clinical story advances, the financial narrative is more layered. Novo Nordisk’s first-quarter 2026 revenues rose 32% on a constant-currency basis to roughly $15.2 billion, with Wegovy claiming a 65% share of all new U.S. prescriptions for obesity drugs. The company is also ploughing ahead with a share buyback programme of up to 15 billion Danish kroner over twelve months, having repurchased nearly 16 million B-shares at an average price of around 261 kroner since February. An oral Wegovy tablet is slated for a non-U.S. launch in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

Yet the stock tells a different story. At 38.65 euros, the share sits about 45% below its 52-week high of 70.13 euros and has shed roughly 13% since the start of the year. On a 12-month view, the decline deepens to 37%. The pain has been driven by a downgraded 2026 forecast — adjusted revenue and profit are expected to shrink by 4% to 12% — along with intensifying competition from Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide and concessions on U.S. drug pricing. Still, the stock has clawed back about 27% from its year-to-date low in late March and now trades comfortably above its 50-day moving average. Analysts remain cautious: Kepler Capital maintains a Hold, and the consensus rating is also Hold with a price target of roughly 291 Danish kroner, only a whisker above current levels.

The central question for investors is whether MASH can evolve into a meaningful commercial pillar for semaglutide or will remain a sideshow next to the obesity juggernaut. The ESSENCE data provide clinical ammunition for the long-term argument, but near-term sentiment will hinge on upcoming catalysts. On 7 June, Novo Nordisk will host an investor event at the ADA conference to outline its strategy for new indications, including MASH. The next half-year results follow on 5 August 2026. Until then, the tension between pipeline promise and market headwinds looks set to persist.