Novo Nordisk’s Latest Trial Data Fails to Ignite Analyst Enthusiasm

Novo Nordisk DK0062498333

The Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk released Phase 3 results for its combination therapy CagriSema this Monday, but the market's response has been notably muted. While the data confirmed the treatment's efficacy for Type 2 diabetes, analysts maintained a cautious stance, with attention now shifting to the company's upcoming quarterly report on February 4th.

In the REIMAGINE-2 trial, CagriSema—a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide—was evaluated over 68 weeks. Participants receiving the combination therapy saw a reduction in HbA1c of 1.91 percentage points, a marginal improvement over the 1.76 percentage point reduction achieved with semaglutide alone. A more pronounced difference was observed in weight loss, where CagriSema led to an average reduction of 14.2% body weight, outperforming the 10.2% loss from the single therapy.

Despite demonstrating superiority, the figures were largely within the anticipated range. Analysts at Citi characterized the outcome as "in line with expectations," emphasizing that the pivotal REIMAGINE 4 study, with results due in Q2 2026, will be more consequential. That trial will feature a head-to-head comparison against Eli Lilly's rival therapy, tirzepatid (marketed as Zepbound).

Cautious Sentiment Prevails on Wall Street

Leading investment banks have reiterated restrained positions following the data release:
* Barclays continues to rate the stock as "Equal Weight" (Neutral) with a price target of 360 Danish Krone (DKK).
* UBS affirmed its "Hold" rating and a 390 DKK target.
* Citi maintained a "Neutral" stance, viewing the forthcoming direct competitor comparison as a more critical milestone.

The broader market context adds to the pressure. Analysts at Jefferies recently revised their forecast for the global obesity drug market downward, slashing the projected value from $150 billion to $80 billion. This adjustment signals expectations of intensifying competition and mounting pricing pressures across the sector.

All Eyes on the February Earnings Report

Investor focus is now squarely on Novo Nordisk's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, scheduled for release on February 4. The operational performance, detailed sales figures for the blockbuster drug Wegovy, and the company's guidance for 2026 are likely to be the primary drivers for the stock's near-term direction. The share price has reflected significant uncertainty, having declined approximately 38% over the preceding twelve-month period.