Novo Nordisk’s High-Dose Shot and Amazon Push Provide Lift, Yet Stock Sags on Generics and FDA Review

Despite strong weight-loss data and an Amazon Pharmacy deal, Novo Nordisk shares slump on patent cliff fears, FDA scrutiny, and a 13.7% YTD decline.

Even as Novo Nordisk showcased striking weight-loss data and extended its digital distribution through Amazon Pharmacy, the Danish drugmaker’s shares have failed to escape a persistent slump. The disconnect between clinical achievement and market sentiment has rarely been sharper.

On the clinical front, the company presented fresh results at the European Obesity Congress in Istanbul. A 7.2-milligram weekly injection delivered a weight reduction of almost 28% in patients who responded early to treatment. Meanwhile, the high-dose Wegovy oral pill led to rapid results: nearly a third of early responders shed 10% of their body weight within four months, and by the study’s end the average loss reached 21.6%. The data underscores Novo Nordisk’s defensive push against rival Eli Lilly, whose competing GLP-1 drugs have been intensifying pressure.

Alongside these scientific wins, the company scored a commercial victory by broadening patient access. Amazon Pharmacy now offers the oral Ozempic tablet for Type-2 diabetes across three dosages, with same-day delivery available in roughly 3,000 US cities. Amazon plans to extend that coverage to 4,500 cities by the end of 2026, reducing Novo Nordisk’s reliance on traditional pharmacy channels. The move complements existing partnerships with Weight Watchers and GoodRx. For Wegovy oral tablets, the numbers are already turning heads: more than 2 million prescriptions have been written, with the product capturing 65% of all new US oral GLP-1 scripts. In the first quarter, Wegovy oral generated 2.26 billion Danish kroner in revenue, comfortably beating the Jefferies consensus estimate.

Yet the stock remains under pressure. Shares closed Friday at €38.56, down 1.82% on the day. On a month-over-month basis the loss stands at 11.72%, but the year-to-date decline is a more painful 13.70%, while over twelve months the drop extends to 34.93%. One headwind came from the US Food and Drug Administration, which called for detailed monitoring measures of side effects. A further check is the authorised share buyback programme now in focus.

The biggest drag, however, is the approaching patent cliff. In China, Ozempic’s patent expires later this year, and generic manufacturers are already lining up. In India, where the Semaglutid patent lapses in March 2026, more than a dozen local players — including Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla and Zydus Lifesciences — have launched their own versions. Novo Nordisk has responded with aggressive pricing: Ozempic prices in India were cut 38%, and Wegovy prices fell 48%. Despite the cuts, combined sales of the diabetes and obesity drugs rose 40% in April, a sign that volume gains can offset some margin erosion — but the pressure is unlikely to ease soon.

Management's updated guidance reflects this uncertainty. After a strong first quarter, the company now expects adjusted revenue for 2026 to decline between 4% and 12%, an improvement on an earlier forecast of a steeper fall. Total reported quarterly revenues hit nearly 97 billion Danish kroner, though adjusted operating profit slipped slightly. The obesity segment continues to surge, growing 22% globally, while older products such as insulin and Ozempic are fading.

Looking ahead, the pipeline provides another raison d’être. CagriSema, the next-generation weight-control candidate, was submitted to the FDA in December 2025, with a decision expected before the end of 2026. In a 68-week trial, patients achieved an average 22.7% weight loss versus 2.3% on placebo. A phase 3 high-dose study is planned for the second half of this year.

All these threads — Amazon reach, generic pricing, regulatory milestones — converge on August 5, when Novo Nordisk releases its half-year results. Until then, the market will weigh strong operational momentum against the structural headwinds of patent expiries and pricing erosion.