Novo Nordisk’s Hemophilia Data Offers Rare Bright Spot as Revenue Guidance Darkens

Novo Nordisk's hemophilia A drug Denecimig shows 99% fewer bleeds in Phase 3, bolstering FDA filing as GLP-1 headwinds mount and stock remains near oversold levels.

Novo Nordisk published Phase 3 results for its hemophilia A drug Denecimig (Mim8) in the New England Journal of Medicine on April 29, and the numbers are striking. Patients receiving monthly injections of the therapy experienced 99% fewer bleeding episodes compared with those on on-demand treatment. Against prior prophylactic clotting therapy, the bleeding rate fell by 43% to 54%.

The efficacy held regardless of whether patients had inhibitors, a key differentiator that could give Denecimig a broader addressable market than many existing options. The company filed its Biologics License Application with the FDA back in September 2025, and the NEJM publication now bolsters that regulatory push as a commercial launch edges closer.

The timing is deliberate. Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 franchise faces mounting headwinds, and the hemophilia pipeline is being positioned as a second pillar. The company expects revenue and operating profit to decline by 5% to 13% in 2026 at constant exchange rates, driven largely by falling net prices in the US market. Medicare Part D negotiations and most-favored-nation clauses are squeezing reimbursement, while Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo received FDA approval in early April, adding fresh competitive pressure even if early sales data have been mixed.

Analyst sentiment has soured markedly. The average price target has been cut by more than 21% over the past three months, and the consensus rating sits at “Hold.” Several institutional investors have trimmed their positions, signaling waning patience for a near-term recovery. The relative strength index hovers near 25, technically in oversold territory — though whether that signals a bottom or merely the depth of the selloff remains an open question.

The stock closed Wednesday at €35.99, up 4.18% on the day. Over the past 30 days, it has gained roughly 13% from its March low of €30.48, but the year-to-date picture remains grim: the shares are down nearly 20% since January, and at €36.27 still trade almost 50% below the 52-week high set in June 2025.

Novo Nordisk continues its share buyback program, which covers up to 15 billion Danish kroner over 12 months. The current tranche, capped at 3.8 billion kroner and running through May 4, 2026, had repurchased about 13.4 million B-shares at an average price of 256.48 kroner as of April 24, for a total of roughly 3.4 billion kroner.

All eyes now turn to the first-quarter results due on May 6 at 7:30 a.m. CEST. The market will be watching for updated full-year guidance, a concrete timeline for the hemophilia launch, and early signals on the Wegovy oral pill. A potential catalyst on the horizon: Medicare is expected to expand coverage for obesity drugs by mid-2026, which could broaden patient access to Wegovy. Whether that can offset the pricing pressure will be a key debate when the numbers land.