Novo Nordisk’s China Offensive and Oral Wegovy Win Reshape the Risk-Reward Calculus

Novo Nordisk stock slumps 44% to €37.48 (P/E 14.1) amid patent fears and cyberattack, but pushes oral semaglutide in China after patent expiry, with UK approval and elevated dividend yield.

Novo Nordisk is navigating one of the most contradictory moments in its recent history. The Danish pharma giant is simultaneously pushing into the world’s second-largest drug market with a new oral obesity treatment, fending off a major cyberattack, and watching its stock languish at its lowest valuation in years — a combination that has handed income investors a dividend yield not seen since before the GLP-1 boom.

The shares have slumped to €37.48, roughly 44% below the 52-week high of €66.70, after a sell-off driven by patent concerns and rising competition. At that price, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 14.1, well under the sector average of 17.8. Yet the company continues to invest aggressively in its next growth chapter, with two high-stakes regulatory filings converging in the coming months.

The Chinese Puzzle: Patent Expiry Meets a Giant Opportunity

China has become a focal point of Novo Nordisk’s strategy. CEO Mike Doustdar confirmed on Tuesday that the company intends to file for approval of the oral tablet version of semaglutide — the active ingredient behind Wegovy — “very soon.” The timing is delicate: the Chinese patent for semaglutide expired in March 2026, opening the door to local copycats. Eli Lilly has already submitted an application for its own oral GLP-1 candidate, Orforglipron, at the end of 2025.

The market potential is undeniable. E-commerce platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com recorded approximately 1.4 billion yuan ($207 million) in GLP-1 product sales during the first quarter of 2026 alone. Novo Nordisk is backing its ambitions with hard capital: it is investing 200 million yuan in expanding production lines at its Tianjin facility, bringing its cumulative investment in China since 2003 to more than 17 billion yuan.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the regulatory picture is brighter. The UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency recently approved the 25 mg Wegovy tablet — the first daily oral weight-loss pill available on the British market. In the United States, prescriptions for Wegovy topped 3 million in the first five months of 2026, underscoring the sustained demand for obesity treatments.

Internal Turbulence: Cyberattack and Executive Exit

Behind the commercial momentum, Novo Nordisk is dealing with serious operational disruptions. The hacker group FulcrumSec claims to have stolen 1.3 terabytes of data, including information on unannounced programmes and the company’s RNAi pipeline. The company confirmed that clinical trial data was copied, although it stressed the information was pseudonymised and that operations remain normal. Separately, M&A specialist John McDonald is leaving the firm to join European biotech fund Forbion, a move that removes a key dealmaker from the team.

Pipeline Safety Net and the Dividend Angle

While the near-term headwinds are tangible, the longer-term pipeline offers counterweights. Ziltivekimab, an antibody currently in Phase III trials for cardiovascular indications, is being flagged by Morgan Stanley as a potential blockbuster with annual sales of up to $5 billion. That could prove critical because generic competition in China is expected to arrive from the second quarter of 2027.

For income-focused investors, the stock’s decline has created an unusual opportunity. Novo Nordisk’s dividend yield has climbed to roughly 4.1%, based on a recent share price of €37.92. That marks a stark contrast with the company’s history as a pure growth stock. The dividend has been increased for 19 consecutive years, with a five-year compound annual growth rate exceeding 20%. The payout ratio of approximately 50% leaves headroom even if earnings fall by up to 13% this year — a scenario some analysts already anticipate.

The valuation gap has not gone unnoticed. Seeking Alpha recently upgraded its rating on the stock to Buy, citing the discounted P/E. Notably, while the trailing multiple is 14.1, the forward P/E is estimated below 10, reflecting the expected earnings dip. That compression suggests much of the bad news — from the Chinese patent cliff to growing competition from Eli Lilly — has already been priced in.

Novo Nordisk is thus a study in contrasts. The same factors that have punished the share price — the patent expiry, the market entry risk, the cyber breach — have also produced a yield and a valuation that are rare for a company still commanding a dominant position in two of the fastest-growing therapeutic categories. The oral Wegovy filing in China and the UK approval represent tangible catalysts, but the clock is ticking before local generics reshape the battlefield. For now, the market is betting that a company that has reinvested 17 billion yuan in China alone is not walking away from its biggest opportunity.