Novo Nordisk’s Buyback Program Hits 4.7 Billion Kronen as ADA Conference Holds the Next Catalyst

Novo Nordisk spent €4.7B on share buybacks but stock is down 40% YoY. Revenue growth was artificial, US pricing pressure mounts, and upcoming ADA data on CagriSema could be pivotal.

The Danish pharmaceutical group has been aggressively repurchasing its own B-shares since early February, spending around 4.7 billion kroner by the end of May. That sum represents nearly a third of the current 11.2-billion-kroner buyback programme, though the overall authorization extends to as much as 15 billion kroner. The pace has picked up notably: between 26 and 29 May alone, Novo Nordisk bought roughly 210,000 shares each day at prices ranging from 286.16 to 293.42 kroner.

Yet the market remains deeply sceptical. The shares trade at €37.78 on Tradegate, still 40% lower than a year ago and more than 45% below the 52-week peak of €70.13. Since the start of the year the stock has lost 15.44%, and despite a recent recovery that has lifted it above the 50-day moving average of €35.49, the longer-term 200-day line remains out of reach. The relative strength index of 71.6 suggests the bounce is already looking stretched.

The buyback, which runs until February 2027, raises the company’s own holdings to 35 million shares—0.8% of total equity. That signals boardroom confidence, but the operating environment tells a more complicated story.

A closer look at first-quarter results reveals how much of the revenue growth was artificial. Sales climbed 32% year on year, but only thanks to a one-off benefit from the US 340B programme. Excluding that effect, revenues actually shrank by 4%. The official guidance for 2026 forecasts a decline of between 4% and 12%.

Pricing pressure is intensifying in the largest market. New US government agreements based on a most-favoured-nation principle have driven monthly out-of-pocket costs for obesity therapies below $350, widening patient access but squeezing manufacturer margins. Meanwhile, CVS Caremark is stripping Wegovy of its exclusive formulary status from June, placing it on the same tier as Eli Lilly’s Foundayo. From October, Zepbound will join the competition, ending the preferential treatment that carried Wegovy through 2025. Novo Nordisk is responding by expanding direct-to-consumer digital channels to bypass traditional insurance models.

There is a bright spot in Europe. France will begin reimbursing prescription weight-loss injections for patients with severe obesity from 15 June, covering both Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro. The programme is expected to cost around €100 million annually and could reach roughly 1 million patients, ending the €300-a-month outlay that many were paying out of pocket.

The most consequential event, however, is the upcoming American Diabetes Association scientific sessions in New Orleans from 5 to 8 June. Novo Nordisk will present Phase 3 results from the REIMAGINE studies on Sunday 7 June, followed by a dedicated investor event on research and development. The spotlight will fall on the next-generation candidate CagriSema and the once-weekly injectable Zenagamtide.

The oral formulation of Wegovy has been performing better than expected since its US launch, with over 2 million prescriptions written—the strongest GLP-1 debut in American history. But the longer-term growth story depends on the pipeline. An FDA decision on CagriSema for weight reduction is expected in the second half of the year, and the data readout in New Orleans will determine whether the market’s confidence is justified.

Until then, Novo Nordisk continues to spend heavily on its own stock. Whether that buys time or merely masks deeper structural challenges is the question hanging over the shares as the conference begins.