Novo Nordisk’s Buyback Blitz and FDA Fast-Track Mask a Steep Profit Slide

Novo Nordisk spends billions on share repurchases but faces a 50% stock drop, 2026 revenue decline, and fierce Eli Lilly competition. Pipeline progress offers hope.

Novo Nordisk is spending heavily to prop up its stock, but the underlying numbers tell a sobering story. The Danish drugmaker has plowed 3.44 billion Danish kroner into share repurchases since launching its buyback program in February, with the first tranche of 3.8 billion kroner nearly exhausted. Yet the shares remain mired near 35 euros — more than 50% below last summer’s 52-week peak.

The buyback is a bold counterweight to a deteriorating outlook. Management forecasts a 5% to 13% revenue decline in 2026, driven by US price erosion, intensifying competition from Eli Lilly, and the expiration of semaglutide patents in several non-US markets. Restructuring costs of around 8 billion kroner add to the drag. By returning capital to shareholders, the board is signaling it believes the stock is undervalued — a view supported by the technical picture. The relative strength index sits at roughly 26, deep in oversold territory, and while the shares have clawed back above their 50-day moving average of 33.78 euros, they remain well below the 200-day line of 42.67 euros.

Analysts are hardly rushing to endorse the recovery. The consensus carries seven "hold" ratings against a lone "buy," with an average price target of 43 euros. Traders Union strategists see a sideways grind ahead, lacking a clear breakout catalyst. The stock has shed about 21% since the start of the year.

Pipeline Progress Offers a Counterpoint

On the regulatory front, the company notched a win with the FDA granting fast-track designation to Coramitug, a candidate for ATTR cardiomyopathy — a serious condition with limited treatment options. The designation accelerates development and review, though it does not guarantee approval.

More immediately, Novo Nordisk is pushing forward with oral semaglutide for pediatric Type 2 diabetes. The PIONEER-TEENS study demonstrated a statistically significant 0.83 percentage-point reduction in blood sugar versus placebo in adolescents. The company plans to file for US and EU approval in the second half of 2026. The addressable market is substantial: an estimated 14.6 million adolescents globally had Type 2 diabetes in 2021, a figure projected to reach 21 million by 2030. Eli Lilly has no pediatric presence in this segment — its oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo (orforglipron) launched in April 2026 for adults only, priced between $149 and $349 monthly for self-pay patients.

In Europe, Wegovy achieved a logistical milestone as the first GLP-1 weight-loss drug approved for 48-hour delivery across the EU, streamlining supply chains. Meanwhile, the launch of oral semaglutide for Type 2 diabetes is slated for the second quarter of 2026, and the weight-loss candidate Amycretin is transitioning from Phase II to Phase III trials.

The Competitive Squeeze

Novo Nordisk still commands a 54.6% volume market share in the GLP-1 segment as of December 2025, but that dominance faces mounting pressure. Eli Lilly’s Foundayo — an oral drug requiring no food restrictions — directly challenges Novo’s injectable paradigm. The earnings consensus reflects the strain: analysts expect a 3% revenue decline in 2026 and a 16% plunge in earnings per share.

Novo Holdings, the parent company, is investing roughly $73 million in a South Korean private-equity fund focused on biohealth — its first such Korean venture. The move signals long-term strategic diversification, but it is unlikely to shift near-term investor sentiment.

What Comes Next

The next major catalyst arrives in May, when Novo Nordisk reports first-quarter 2026 results. Investors will scrutinize updated revenue guidance and management’s commentary on the GLP-1 competitive landscape. Whether the quarterly numbers trigger a re-rating depends largely on whether the full-year forecast is reaffirmed or cut.

The buyback program, with a total envelope of up to 15 billion kroner over 12 months, has so far retired roughly 13.4 million B-shares at an average price of 256.48 kroner, leaving the company holding about 0.7% of its own stock. With the first tranche set to expire in early May 2026, the pace of repurchases may slow — unless management launches a second tranche to sustain the signal of confidence.

For now, Novo Nordisk presents a split-screen reality: a pipeline advancing on multiple fronts, a stock trading at technically oversold levels, and a profit outlook that gives even the most bullish analysts pause.