Novo Nordisk’s Bittersweet Victory: EU Backs New Wegovy Forms as Shares Slump and Competition Intensifies

Despite two CHMP recommendations for oral and high-dose Wegovy in May, Novo Nordisk stock is down 40% over 12 months amid pricing pressure and Eli Lilly competition.

Two positive regulatory recommendations from European authorities in a single month might ordinarily give a drugmaker’s stock a lift. For Novo Nordisk, however, the market’s gaze has shifted elsewhere. The Danish pharma giant secured endorsements from the European Medicines Agency’s human medicines committee (CHMP) for both an oral and a high-dose injectable version of Wegovy in May, yet its shares remain deep in the red, down 15.4% since the start of 2026 and 40.6% over the past twelve months. At €37.78 on Tradegate, the stock is still trading well below its 200-day moving average of €41.84, and the relative strength index of 71.6 suggests the recent bounce may already be overstretched.

Oral and High-Dose Wegovy Clear Key Hurdle

The CHMP recommended the approval of semaglutide 25 mg as a once-daily oral tablet for weight management — the first oral GLP-1 receptor agonist to receive such a recommendation in the EU. The label includes data from the SELECT study showing a reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events. The committee also backed Wegovy 7.2 mg in a single-dose pen, with the STEP-UP trial reporting a mean weight loss of 20.7% and roughly one-third of participants losing more than a quarter of their body weight. Formal approval by the European Commission is considered a formality. Novo Nordisk plans to launch the high-dose pen in the EU in the third quarter of 2026 and the oral version in selected non-US markets during the second half of the year.

The oral formulation has already impressed in the United States. Since its launch in January 2026, more than two million prescriptions have been written — about double initial expectations — translating into quarterly revenue of 2.3 billion Danish kroner. Crucially, the Wegovy tablet label carries no restrictions on concurrent medications, a potential advantage in Europe where polypharmacy is common.

Pricing Resets and Rival Activity Cloud the Outlook

Despite the regulatory tailwind, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 guidance still calls for a decline in adjusted revenue and operating profit of between 4% and 12% at constant exchange rates. A key source of pressure comes from the US, where new government pricing agreements under a most-favored-nation model have pushed monthly out-of-pocket costs for obesity therapies below $350. While that improves access for patients, it compresses manufacturer pricing power. To adapt, the company is expanding its own digital direct-to-consumer channels to reduce reliance on traditional insurance-based models.

Meanwhile, competition is closing in. Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo has been listed on major US formularies since June 1, directly challenging the head start Novo Nordisk had built with its oral Wegovy. The threat is existential: if Novo cannot defend its turf, the premium pricing that underpins its lofty margins (still above 80% gross) could erode further.

Buybacks Send a Signal but Can’t Reverse the Slide

Management has sought to reassure investors with capital returns. A share buyback programme of up to 15 billion kroner is underway, with the current tranche running until February 2027 and covering B-shares worth up to 11.2 billion kroner. As of May 29, the company had repurchased 17,889,179 B-shares at an average price of DKK 263.47, spending about 4.71 billion kroner. In late May, it bought an additional 840,000 shares at prices between DKK 286.16 and 293.42. The total holding now stands at 35,074,480 B-shares, representing 0.8% of the company’s capital. The dividend yield sits at 3.84%.

But buybacks alone cannot resolve the operational questions hanging over the stock. The real test lies ahead in the pipeline.

New Orleans Data Dump on Deck

All eyes are now on the American Diabetes Association’s Scientific Sessions in New Orleans from June 5 to 8. Novo Nordisk will present 40 abstracts, including phase 3 REIMAGINE data for CagriSema, its next-generation dual-agonist candidate. On June 7, the company hosts an R&D investor day where it is expected to outline timelines for a US Food and Drug Administration decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Also on the agenda: phase 2b data for Zenagamtide, an injectable molecule that targets both GLP-1 and amylin receptors simultaneously, potentially offering a differentiated profile beyond current GLP-1 therapies.

For a stock that has shed nearly half its value from a year ago, these data readouts represent the next make-or-break catalyst. Whether oral Wegovy’s European momentum and a busy pipeline can restore confidence — or whether pricing pressure and competitive encroachment will continue to dominate the narrative — may become clearer within the span of a single week in New Orleans.